Dutch citizens will vote over the course of the next three days to determine the composition of their next parliament. The contest is being watched closely for what it might signal for wider political trends on the continent, notably national-supranational and centrist-right tensions. Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are expected to expand on their take from the 2017 election, when a collapse in support for the Labor Party (PvdA) resulted in a balkanized parliamentary landscape. But a close look at the polling and issues suggests that this won’t be a triumph for centrist politics.
Analysis
Toward the end of last year, a belief emerged that COVID-19 would damage the political appeal of populism by outing its slipshod style of governance, thus vindicating the supposedly technocratic worldview of Europe’s establishment parties.
With former ECB head Mario Draghi leading Italy’s new government – and with the approval of the ‘anti-establishment’ Five-Star Movement no less – there may well be some truth to the notion.
But is this what’s going on in the Netherlands?
Polling indicates that the VVD will expand its vote take this week. The party is currently polling at 24%, where it took 21.3% of the vote in the previous general election. Seats are allocated on the basis of proportional representation, so this modest boost in vote share will result in anywhere between 3-10 new seats for the party in the 150-seat House of Representatives, depending on the overall turnout. The VVD won 33 seats in 2017.
Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), the populist, anti-immigration party that Rutte and the VVD have ruled out any coalition with, is currently polling at 14% based on the Politico poll of polls. That’s actually up from its 13.1% take in 2017, but a far cry from the low-30 highs that PVV was posting in the lead-up to the 2017 general election.
Herein lies the first takeaway: the sum total of the COVID-19 popularity dividend is a paltry 3% for Prime Minister Rutte, who is now vying for his fourth term in-office (behind only Hungary’s Viktor Orban in terms of longevity). On the other hand, populist politicians have held their ground.
At the grassroots level, there has been no fundamental shift in loyalties between 2017 and 2021.
With VVD primed to become the largest party in parliament, the conversation shifts to coalition options. Parties cited as potential partners include: Democrats 66 (liberal); the Socialist Party; GroenLinks (a Green party); the Christian Democratic Appeal (centrist); and Labor. Labor is a natural ally that has propped up past VVD coalitions in the past, but the party was savaged in the 2017 election, losing 29 seats.
If the polling is accurate, VVD will have a lot of potential coalition partners to work with.
