The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced in March that ISIS had lost its final stronghold in Syria, marking the end of the so-called caliphate it declared in 2014. Six months later, President Trump announced the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a night-time raid by U.S. special forces on his compound in Syria. Clearly 2019 was a year of significant strides in the war against ISIS. So why are so many in the international community now worried that the terrorist group is in resurgence?

Only two weeks after al-Baghdadi’s death, ISIS announced the name of its new leader: Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi. To legitimize al-Qurashi’s leadership, ISIS initiated a Bayat campaign starting from November 2. Bayat is a pledge of allegiance and it is leader-specific, which is why it needs to be renewed with every succession. The Bayat campaign involved pledges by ISIS branches and affiliates from different parts of the world, thus promoting the group as it enters its transition phase. Meanwhile, experts and policymakers are trying to figure out how ISIS will fare in the post-Baghdadi era. Some think that the group might try to re-establish a caliphate somewhere other than Iraq and Syria, while others maintain that the group will go underground and focus more resources on bombings and terror attacks in European and Western countries. It is also believed that East and Southeast Asian countries might also be targeted by ISIS.

ISIS would surely need land, infrastructure, and food supply for training its fighters, bomb-makers, and bombers; however, it’s possible that the group would prefer to maintain a low profile for some time before any high-profile attempt to reestablish a caliphate. This is because when it occupies a territory, it creates fixed targets for its state enemies to attack via drone strikes, air strikes, artillery shelling, etc. Moreover, every anti-ISIS entity is currently vigilant and striving to prevent the rise of ISIS again.

According to Lt. Gen. Saad al-Allaq, the head of Iraqi Military Intelligence, ISIS terrorists had taken refuge in Turkey and they were planning to carry out mass prison breaks as a part of the group’s resurgence. These included senior leaders and financiers who had access to huge sums of money. He made these statements in an interview to CNN last month, around the same time that Turkey captured over 200 ISIS individuals, including a senior leader. More recently, Afghanistan arrested about 700 ISIS members this week. There’s a distinct possibility that these operations in Turkey might have disrupted the plans that Al Allaq discussed. In other words, if a resurgence was coming, it is likely now back on hold as members of the terrorist group go underground in search of sanctuary.