A drone strike targeting the home of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi failed over the weekend. The incident – blamed on Iran-linked militias operating in Iraq – illustrates the country’s fraught politics following a years-long protest campaign and, more recently, a sweeping electoral victory by the nationalist Sadrist movement in last month’s elections.

Analysis

The drone attack comes after the political earthquake of parliamentary elections last month, a contest that saw Sadrist parties increase their seat count from 54 in 2018 to 73, making them the largest party in parliament by a significant margin. Heading in the opposite direction was Fatah (also known as the Conquest Alliance), the political vehicle that represents the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. Fatah’s 2018 seat take of 48 was reduced to 15.

But there’s a significant wrinkle here: Both Fatah and the Sadrists actually received roughly the same proportion of the total vote share. That the Sadrists came out on top is down to their superior campaign organization and simple luck in a first-past-the-post electoral structure that exaggerates margins of victory depending on geography (the voting system is also new, having been instituted in 2019).

Thus, regardless of the legitimacy concerns surrounding an election where only 41% of the eligible population bothers to cast a vote, the Sadrists emerged from the October polls in a much stronger position than they have previously enjoyed, and Shiite cleric and leader Muqtada al-Sadr will undoubtedly be instrumental in determining the make-up of the new government – a process that’s expected to unfold over the course of months of arduous negotiations.

The Fatah Alliance and its supporters are not taking the result lying down, however. There have been numerous protests since the results were first made public demanding a recount; thousands of complaints have also been lodged with the electoral authorities alleging voter fraud. Just last week, one large protest turned violent near the entrance to the Green Zone, resulting in two protestor deaths, including a PMU deputy commander, and 120 injuries.