A previous situation report from mid-October detailed how Addis Ababa hoped to push its advantage in military hardware (notably lethal drones), essential supplies, and morale by launching a renewed campaign to bring the northern region of Tigray back under central government control.

That campaign is now in total disarray. Not only does Tigray remain in the hands of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies, but the government has actually ceded territory since the offensive began.