The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.



Inflation Uptick in the United Kingdom

November inflation came in higher than expected in the United Kingdom, reaching 1.2% year-on-year – higher than the consensus estimate of 1.1%.

The numbers are being closely watched ahead of Brexit negotiations next year, and the impact these talks might have on the pound sterling. The UK currency has taken a pummeling since the Brexit vote earlier this year, closing at nearly 1.50 USD on the eve of the vote and now trading at around 1.27 USD. Uncertainty over the course of EU-UK exit negotiations have fueled pound sterling’s volatility through the latter half of 2016, and this trend will surely continue into 2017 and potentially beyond.