Geopolitics Weekly contextualizes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week.
Asia
Kashmir: A Preview of Things to Come?
What Happened
A recent Geopolitics Weekly warned that there was reason to believe that this round of India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir could differ from 2019, citing several reasons, one of which was that the international system has fundamentally shifted over the past five years. The observation was prescient, as the two sides have since engaged in a series of escalatory moves that brought the two nuclear-armed states perilously close to all-out war:
- April 22: A gunman kills 22 people in India-administered Kashmir, mostly tourists. The Modi administration accuses Pakistan of being behind the attack; Islamabad denies any involvement.
- May 7: India launches ‘Operation Sindoor,’ striking nine ‘terrorist infrastructure’ sites in Pakistan. Pakistan claims to have downed five Indian planes in the operation. US officials later confirmed that China-produced J-10s shot down at least two Indian planes. Some if not all of these Indian planes were reportedly France-produced Rafales.
- May 8: Exchanges of fire are recorded along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Drone warfare emerges as a key vector: India claims to intercept some 400 drones targeting cities and military bases.
- May 10: Pakistan accuses India of launching missiles at key military bases; responds with ‘Operation Wall of Lead,’ launching missile, drone, and air strikes at bases in northern India. Strikes on both sides mark an escalation as targets move deeper into both countries, away from the LoC.
- May 10: A ceasefire is brokered by the United States, with Saudi Arabia doing diplomatic work behind the scenes. However, explosions occur in Srinagar just hours after the agreement is announced, with both sides accusing the other of breaking the deal. In the meantime, the ceasefire seems to be holding.
