The Nigeria elections appear as a dark cloud looming over President Muhammadu Buhari’s head. His time in office has seen the country jump from one crisis to another. But in recent months, the incumbent president has faced his greatest political challenge yet. On July 5, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) split, and will now be known as the ‘Reformed – All Progressives Congress’ (R-APC). Those who left the party did so in the hopes of depriving the former general a second term in office.

The split has weakened confidence both within the cabinet and among ordinary citizens, causing some analysts to wonder whether Buhari will be able to win a second term and be able to uphold his campaign promises of rooting out corruption and bolstering a flailing economy. His record over his first term has fallen short of the mark and, when combined with rumors of failing health and long stints in London hospitals, the overall suggestion is that if Buhari doesn’t step down, he will have a rough reelection campaign ahead of him.