Some of the behind-closed-doors selection process for EU top jobs is unknowable, and now that the spitzenkandidat process has been definitively shelved, it looks like it will be staying that way for the foreseeable future. But if one constant has remained true over the years, it’s that the early favorites going into the race are seldom the ones who emerge victorious at the end. And this time was no different: just ask Manfred Weber.

Here’s the top brass of the next EU administration: