Some of the behind-closed-doors selection process for EU top jobs is unknowable, and now that the spitzenkandidat process has been definitively shelved, it looks like it will be staying that way for the foreseeable future. But if one constant has remained true over the years, it’s that the early favorites going into the race are seldom the ones who emerge victorious at the end. And this time was no different: just ask Manfred Weber.

Here’s the top brass of the next EU administration:

Background

EU Commission President – Ursula von der Leyen (German)

Prior to the summits, this spot was reserved for Manfred Weber (the EPP’s spitzenkandidat), Frans Timmermans, or Margrethe Vestager. In the end, none of them ended up as EU Commission President. That honor went to Ursula von der Leyen, a close ally of Chancellor Merkel and the current minister of defense in the German government. Born in Brussels, Ms. von der Leyen also served as labour minister in a previous Merkel government. Her candidacy was apparently an eleventh hour proposition. President Macron, having rejected the spitzenkandidat process due to Weber’s lack of qualifications, proceeded to have his own candidates successively shot down in the course of negotiations. In the end, he threw his support behind a German as EU Commission president for the first time in over 50 years.  Thus, even though Angela Merkel lost on Weber, and then lost on a controversial ‘Plan B’ to install Social Democrat Frans Timmermans (blocked by the Visegrad Group and Italy), she still ended up with a close ally in one of the EU bureaucracy’s top positions.