Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Growing Scarcity, Growing Demand: Water Conflict Brews in Central Asia

CentralAsiaWater

A volatile cocktail of climate stressors, weak institutions, and faltering water diplomacy is setting the stage for future water conflicts in Central Asia.

Kra Canal: The Impossible Dream of Southeast Asia Shipping

KraCanal

The idea of the Kra Canal – a bypass for the Strait of Malacca – dates all the way back to 1677. But though the technical hurdles have eased since then, fiscal and geopolitical ones have emerged to take their place.

Iran Pulls Back Proxies as Nuclear Talks Resume

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50745

Iran appears to be dialing back proxy activity in Yemen and Iraq amid bilateral nuclear talks, but this isn’t necessarily a paradigm shift in the making.

Trump Tariffs: US Manufacturing Renaissance or Economic Gamble?

President Donald J. Trump participates in a walking tour of Cameron LNG Export Terminal Tuesday, May 14, 2019, in Hackberry, La. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) / modified, cc Trump White House, https://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse45/40884405043

An in-depth look at how the US manufacturing boom envisioned by the Trump tariffs brings new economic risks, namely via trade retaliation, economic disruptions, and long-term fiscal strain.

Trump Tariffs: Global and US Economic Impact of ‘Liberation Day’

President Trump returning from Florida in 2020, modified, Trump White House, https://flickr.com/photos/whitehouse45/50184624051/in/photolist-2jsDjjP-2jyyvFv-2iqiCcd-2jxFhmb-24n4jRR-2iq53sF-2a4MDv7-2jyypgS-2gkMWs7-2i9Xsnj-U3HM66-2jmTogR-2jyyvG7-2j2fdqT-2iq39tM-2gkMWvP-2ga2Th1-2jxhnnf-2ga1Dvg-2jyznsv-2gnY1SW-2jyypeY-2gkMWEX-2jyvaQg-2ga22uk-2ga2Txg-2g38DDW-HxYzvG-2ivdbzH-2jyypeC-2jeZvFk-24n4jXH-2gnY26b-2iq3Ttz-2ga1CKJ-2hhJn9z-2gkMWvo-QnAmv8-2i9ZTtq-2gkMMN1-2gkMMGp-2jC1Rro-2gnXVPL-2jxX8xJ-2hhL1BM-Rd9JXv-GrnLNz-2hX3FcK-2ktphD9-2h3bbcG

Examining how the 2025 Trump tariffs are reshaping global trade, driving up inflation, and redefining US trade policy.

Trump Orders Houthis Strikes as Red Sea Crisis Escalates

An Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) launches from the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) during a live-fire missile exercise in the Atlantic Ocean April 21, 2016. The Eisenhower was underway preparing for a scheduled deployment. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class J. Alexander Delgado), modified, CC US Department of Defense

President Trump has warned the Houthis – and their backers in Iran – of possible escalation if attacks on Red Sea shipping continue. But there’s a limit to what US airstrikes can hope to achieve.

A Breakdown Foretold: Israel-Gaza Conflict Re-Erupts

cc Mussi Katz, modified, public domain, https://flickr.com/photos/mussikatz/50762985048/in/photolist-74bG3v-7T9dmi-4YAeaB-4YEuCw-4YEuKh-7SPMJ6-JXKKa-2Z95Q2-KH7XmR-29MWwcb-2kkKyU9-g49WVG-9i8fQa-9i8fWD-9i8fN2-4YEvHd-9ibkLd-9ibkME-9i8fKT-4YEvz3-4YExew-4YEwDC-4YAfS8-4YEyy9-4YEysW

The fundamental contradiction at the heart of the first Gaza ceasefire – the future of Hamas – has derailed the peace process. This article explores the political and military dynamics of renewed hostilities in Gaza.

Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Economic Risks, Strategic Benefits

cc Goodwin Steel Castings, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Metal_Smelting_%28919%29.jpg

For clues as to how the latest Trump steel and aluminum tariffs may play out, one need only look to recent history.

Turkish-Kurdish Conflict at a Turning Point: What’s Next?

YPG/PKK guerillas circa 2014, modified, cc Kurdishstruggle, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kurdish_PKK_Guerillas_%2814894892476%29.jpg

The PKK’s unilateral disarmament marks a potential turning point in Kurdish relations with the Turkish state, but challenges remain going forward.

US-China Trade War 2.0: Unpacking Trump’s New China Tariffs

cc Flickr Trump White House, modified, President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping | July 8, 2017 (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead), https://flickr.com/photos/whitehouse45/35450047340/in/photolist-W1AL1L-2gnWmSz-2gmkqij-U9k7M7-U9k7Jb-2gmjWB6-2gmjX5W-2gnWmNG-UK3xEC-2gnWHBS-2gnWHsi-2gnWmrz-EgS4Ej-2gnWkXy-2gnWHEH-2gnWkYL-2gnWmuL-2gnWmzF-2gnWmf7-2gnWHt5-RXfeXy-SXNevY-2mwvfR9-2hKQjnT-2aLo7T6

Examining the scope of President Trump’s new China tariffs, their likely consequences, and how they match up to previous rounds of the US-China trade war.

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