At the onset of the Israel-Iran war, the Israeli government framed the campaign as being targeted at Iran’s nuclear program. Analysts pointed out early on that certain structural features suggest a more comprehensive operation aimed at toppling the Iranian regime entirely. Events over the past few days have only helped validate this view.

The Iran Nuclear Threat

In a speech revealing the Israeli strikes to the world, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed Iran’s nuclear program as a ‘clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival.’ He further warned that Iran could achieve a nuclear breakout in a matter of months, producing up to nine nuclear bombs from its preexisting stockpile of enriched uranium.

His assessment echoes an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report from late May, which found that Iran had enough 60% enriched uranium for nine bombs; that is, if it were to be further enriched to the 90% weapons grade threshold, a relatively simple process that takes just one week and could be accomplished using the advanced centrifuges at Fordo. Moreover, the launch of ‘Operation Rising Lion’ came just days after the UN International Atomic Energy Agency found Iran to be non-compliant under its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations for the first time in 20 years.

So far so good: Israel has launched a surgical strike to preempt an imminent threat.

The waters become muddied however by US intelligence that contravenes the IAEA-Israeli narrative, namely testimony from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in March that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon… Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003… [though] Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”