The outbreak of the Ukraine war went off like a bomb in the German foreign policy establishment, invalidating decades of a business-first approach that effectively placed German industry at the mercy of Russian energy blackmail. Amidst the uncertainty and danger of this Zeitendwende (watershed moment), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a radical overhaul of German defense policy: Ukraine would be supplied with weapons, Germany would become more active and assertive in European security affairs, and most importantly, the Bundeswehr would receive some €100 billion in special funding to modernize outdated equipment and bring it into the modern age.

Commenters at the time were skeptical that Berlin would be able to reverse the systemic decline in Germany’s armed forces and bring military spending in-line with NATO’s 2% threshold. Recent events have only served to further validate their views.