Greece’s creditors are driving a hard bargain on releasing a new tranche of funds for Athens to meet its debt obligations, and this time they might not be bluffing. German and French banks, highly exposed to Greek debt at the beginning of the crisis, have managed to offset most of their exposure onto taxpayer-funded creditors such as the IMF and the European Central Bank (which is exposed to Greek debt to the tune of 110 billion euros through its “Target2” system). In theory this leaves financial markets less susceptible to contagion and outright collapse should Greece default and leave the euro zone.

What follows is a list of critical dates this summer for Greece and its creditors. The pace of repayment is slow and weighted towards the IMF through June, leaving some space for Athens to negotiate some wiggle room in terms of payment schedule and even make payments using emergency reserves rather than a new funding stream. But the outlook gets markedly dire come mid-July. That’s when the Greek debt crisis will finally come to a head, and we’ll see once and for all how far Berlin is willing to go to teach its Hellenic brothers and sisters a painful lesson in fiscal responsibility.