It turns out Islamabad’s reprieve is to be short-lived, as the Pakistan Taliban are once again striking at the heart of the Pakistani state.

Analysis

Interior Minister Rehman Malik’s assertion that, “The enemy has started a guerilla war” is a sound characterization given this latest offensive in Pakistan. These attacks were fierce, organized, and are ultimately meant to signal the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan‘s(TTP) continued relevance in the wake of Baitullah Mehsud’s death. A secondary objective might also be to bait the Pakistani military into a premature push into South Waziristan, thus drawing them into a ‘hornet’s nest.’

The tactics being employed – head-on assaults combined with suicide bombing – suggest a high level of training within the Pakistan Taliban. Witnesses in Lahore described militants with advanced shooting skills who could scale walls with military efficiency. Moreover, the scope and organization of the Lahore attacks, involving three different groups attacking three targets, reflects a level of sophistication far beyond the marketplace suicide bomber.

That being said, it is impossible to know what the TTP had to sacrifice to pull off this operation. It’s possible that they were willing to take a large hit on their capacity for future attacks, both in trained personnel and equipment, in order to strike high-profile, hard targets.