“France is under a long-term terrorist threat.” The words of the Ministry of the Interior resound with harshness in all French people’s hearts, after another weekend of horror. The October 2 jihadist attack in the heart of Paris was (another) reminder of the persistent terrorist threat in France. In the lead up to the most anticipated sporting event in the country since the 2018 Football World Cup, the Olympic Games, all eyes will be on the French capital, and the security forces’ capability to keep Olympians, tourists, and locals safe.

The attack

On Saturday night, a 26-year-old man killed a person and wounded two others near Bir-Hakeim in Paris. A few minutes before the attack, the killer shared a video on social media during which he pledged his allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). His specific motivations (beyond a jihadist ideology) for the attack are known, as he claimed he wanted revenge for the persecution of Muslims worldwide.

Converted to Islam in 2015, the jihadist was known to law enforcement for his radical Islam and psychiatric problems. He had been involved in the jihadist network for some time and  was in contact with the Magnanville killer, the Saint-Etienne du Rouvray killer (who both committed jihadist attacks in 2016) and with jihadists in Syria. He himself tried to travel there.

The state of the terrorist threat in France

The threat of terrorism continues to evolve in France. The country raised its terrorism threat alert to its highest level following an attack against a teacher in October. Since 2012, terrorist attacks have killed at least 273 people and injured many more. In addition, 74 attacks have been foiled (three of them in 2024), 64 of them by the DGSI, the domestic intelligence services.

France now looks from within. The ability of the Islamic State to “project” the threat from the exterior, of which the most emblematic examples remain the attacks of 13 November 2015 in Paris, has been severely degraded by the action of the military coalition built against it. Al Qaeda, which claimed responsibility for the attack on Charlie Hebdo in 2015, remains determined to strike at Western countries. The group threatened France via its online platforms in November. This risk has been exacerbated by the threat emanating overwhelmingly from endogenous actors, influenced in particular by persistent jihadist propaganda, despite the fact that this propaganda is produced less frequently.