Darfur News & Analysis

Permanent Partition? Frontline Hardens in Sudan Civil War

On January 24, 2025, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this true-color image of black smoke pouring from the location of an oil refinery located east of the White Nile River in Sudan. The dark plume was the result of a fire at the Al-Jaili refinery, which is located about 60 kilometers (40 miles) north of Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan and home to more than 6.5 million people. Strong winds carried the dense smoke more than 182 kilometers (113 miles) southward, passing over Khartoum where skies darkened from the smoke and noxious plume. Oil refineries handle a number of potentially dangerous chemicals, including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, and many other harmful substances. Exposure to smoke can cause respiratory problems, irritation of the skin and eyes, and headache in the short term. Long term exposure can result in kidney, liver, and nervous system. The fire is the result of fighting between Sudan’s military and rebel Rapid Support Force (RSF) who are engaged in a brutal civil war that begin in April 2023. The refinery, which is owned by Sudan’s government and the state-run China National Petroleum Corporation, was overtaken by RSF shortly after the start of the fighting. It has been attacked repeatedly, with both sides blaming the other for the disastrous fire caused by this latest assault on the refinery. The Al-Jaili refinery has been in operation since 2000 and was designed to produce 100,000 barrels a day, supplying roughly 45 percent of Sudan’s needs. Since the start of the conflict, output has been significantly reduced and accurate estimates of damage from the current blaze are not yet available. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Refinery_Fire_in_Sudan_(MODIS_2025-01-26).jpg

Both the SAF and RSF may accept a short-term truce owing to international pressure or tactical regrouping, but neither will make the concessions required for lasting peace. The current partition of Sudan is here to stay.

Sudan Crisis Sets Stage for Possible Egypt Intervention

cc Kremlin.ru, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=500&offset=0&profile=default&search=Fattah+El-Sisi&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82_%D0%A0%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%82_%D0%90%D0%B1%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%84%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%A1%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%B8.jpeg

Examining the complex geopolitical and domestic issues at stake for Egypt as Sudan hurdles toward civil war.

Sudan Votes in Key Referendum

Sudan referendum, Generated by Google Gemini on July 28, 2025.

For Sudan, January 9th will bring with it either a sense of closure after decades of civil war or a new wave of chaos in Africa’s largest state.

Sudan Elections Point to War

US Navy, public domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Omar_al-Bashir,_12th_AU_Summit,_090131-N-0506A-347.jpgOmar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, the president of Sudan, listens to a speech during the opening of the 20th session of The New Partnership for Africa's Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Jan. 31, 2009.

In the wake of last week’s highly symbolic though hollowed-out election in Sudan, the question on everyone’s mind is no longer whether or not the south will secede in 2011, but how bloody their secession will be.

Obama U-Turns on Sudan Policy

Summary: President Obama attends a meeting of heads of state, and Sudanese leaders, discussing the responsibility of all parties to fully implement the peace agreement that ended Sudan’s civil war, calling for accountability for crimes, and speaking directly to the people of Sudan about how the United States would support those who work for peace. / cc Obama White House, modified, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/09/24/president-obama-ministerial-meeting-sudan-fate-millions

The Obama administration has rebooted bilateral relations with yet another international pariah, in effect choosing engagement over the morally sound though geopolitically risky course of self-imposed isolation.

Darfur Conflict Edges Towards Peace

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

Sudanese President Omar al-Beshir is suspected of trying to avoid an imminent ICC arrest warrant against him by pre-emptying western powers in entering into peace negotiations with Darfur insurgents

US-Sudan Rapprochement on Oil, Security

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

Despite its accusations of “genocide” in Darfur and an outbreak of violence in oil-rich Abyei, the US is negotiating with Sudan to normalize diplomatic relations. 

Darfur & Chinese Arms Sales

Generated by Google Gemini on July 25, 2025.

China is selling small arms to Sudan, which are used in the Darfur conflict to maim and kill civilians, in exchange for access to Sudanese oil. The violence in Darfur will continue as long as China continues its oil-for-weapons trade with Sudan.

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