The EU goes into 2021 faced with a mixture of opportunities and challenges. The bloc plans to implement an ambitious recovery plan, intended not only to boost growth after the COVID-induced recession, but also to initiate a transition toward a greener and tech-based economic future. Somehow paradoxically, the pandemic seems to have emboldened rather than downgraded the Commission, which appears determined to carry on its renovation efforts. Yet the EU remains riddled with complex problems that will persist throughout 2021 and beyond, and it remains to be seen whether Brussels’ react-and-adapt approach will remain viable over the long run.
Outlook
Plans laid to waste by the COVID-19 pandemic
At the beginning of 2020, the EU had to cope with various intertwined problems: the continuous inflow of irregular migrants, the rise of populist parties, the spread of disinformation by domestic and foreign actors (chiefly Russia) and internal disagreements over rule of law in Hungary and Poland.
Yet 2020 kicked off with a rather optimistic mood of hope and ambition. The Union was experiencing a limited but steady economic growth rate of just over 1%, which was expected to continue into 2021. True, there were (and still are) imbalances in the bloc’s economic structure and performance, and the protectionist policies introduced by Trump had frustrated prospects for greater trade-driven growth. Nevertheless, positive signs of recovery had emerged, and there was pervasive hope that the US presidential elections in November would bring a new administration keener in (re)engaging in multilateralism. Similarly, while 2020 would see the UK’s definitive departure from the Union, there was still time to negotiate and make Brexit as smooth as possible for both sides. Most importantly, a new Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen had just taken office with an ambitious program based on six priorities. The Commission had pledged to create an ‘economy that works for the people,’ centered on creating an investment-friendly environment and generating new jobs with a specific eye for young people and for small enterprises. This entailed the promotion of digital technologies, connectivity and the use of artificial intelligence, as well as implementing a ‘European Green Deal’ to transform the EU’s economic infrastructure and achieve climate neutrality. In social-political terms, the Commission intended to protect and promote the rule of law and increase participation in political life. Lastly, the Commission (which labelled itself as ‘geopolitical’) pledged to enhance the Union’s international stance and support multilateralism.
If all had gone according to the original plan, 2020 would have marked the launch of this ambitious strategy; but of course, then the COVID-19 pandemic struck, triggering not only a mass health crisis, but also a global recession felt in nearly every sector of the economy. In response to the health emergency, the EU and its member states were forced to change their priorities. The Commission’s initiatives to modernize the Union and reignite long-term growth – by itself a long and complex process involving many public and private stakeholders – had to be shelved. Depending on how long it takes to fully contain the pandemic, the Commission and other EU bodies might not be able to concentrate their full efforts on implementing the program as originally conceived. In this context, it may seem as though COVID-19 has killed the Commission’s aspirations, and that the EU has lost its opportunity to restructure its economic framework and become a more decisive international player.
