Map: Ukraine Civil War (02/06/15)

Ukraine Civil War

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 – The Siege of Debaltseve

Debaltseve is one of two major sites of fighting in recent days. Its primary importance lies as a rail hub linking western Ukraine with the rebel-held east. This is where rail lines converge from the two major rebel-held cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, giving the city an obvious strategic value should the rebels want to push further towards the western border of Donetsk oblast.

One can see from the map that rebel forces have encircled a government deployment in Debaltseve, which is believed to number in the low hundreds. This deployment has already suffered losses, and reinforcements have been dispatched as of February 5. Uniformed Russian Special Forces had been spotted in rebel-held territory around Debaltseve.

The city will be the scene of intense fighting over the coming weeks, and given the lack of outside support to government forces – it’s a fight Kiev that will likely lose.

 

2 – Shelling in Mariupol

The city of Mariupol – Ukraine’s fifth-largest port and potentially a key step in making the rebel enclave economically viable – has seen intensive shelling since the ceasefire officially broke down. Shelling has died down in the past few days, however, in what appears to be a lull ahead of a sustained rebel push on Debaltseve up north.

 

EU Peace Plan

Elsewhere, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are flying between Kiev and Moscow promoting a new peace initiative. If recent history is any guide, the initiative will receive an initial warm welcome from Putin, then it will get bogged down in minutiae (likely against the backdrop of a bloody rebel victory in Debaltseve), before being officially adopted and unofficially ignored as rebel forces continue to consolidate their territorial hold across eastern Ukraine.

 

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