Hundreds of thousands of people are being driven from their homes by violent militias in Mali, destabilizing an already precarious political climate and swelling migration flows throughout the region.

The clashes are also exacerbating the country’s humanitarian crisis, where over 550,000 people are lacking in food and basic hygiene.

The outlook is expected to deteriorate over the short-term as weak state institutions struggle to reign in escalating violence between various well-armed groups, some with links to trans-national criminal and terrorist networks. The forces driving this violence – long-term climate change and competition for land and water resources – are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.