Recent reports detailing arms shipment from Eritrea into Somalia are a stark indication that Islamic extremist elements within Somalia may have found a powerful patron.

Analysis

According to the Somali government, Eritrea has been actively arming al Shabaab militants, an extremist faction that split off from Somalia’s former ruling militia, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). Assistance has purportedly come in the form of “plane loads of AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenades, and other weapons.”  If these accusations prove to be true, Eritrea is playing a dangerous game that will result in a swell of global condemnation led by the United States.  Consequently, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a coalition of East African states, has already started rallying calls for UN sanctions on Eritrea.

While it is probable that they would have preferred their support to remain clandestine, Eritrean officials have most likely calculated that international condemnation is an acceptable consequence of continuing their proxy war against Ethiopia in Somalia. By providing material support to anti-Ethiopian groups within Somalia, Eritrea is hoping to provoke an eventual Ethiopian military incursion similar to 2007, when Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia to topple the UIC government.