FORECAST
Even though a media blockade continues to obscure some of the details surrounding ongoing protests in Iran, the situation unfortunately bears many of the signs of surging violence in the short-term.
Although there is increasing evidence that the original Iranian election outcome was quite possible without any clandestine manipulation, it will be difficult to really know whether or not the election was rigged. Nevertheless, the truth has become inconsequential given the situation currently unfolding in Iran. More important are the battle lines being drawn in Iranian politics, lines that not only separate the presidential candidates but more importantly, some of the Ayatollahs as well.
As such, it can be expected that the green movement will continue to lean on urban people power in their clash against the more conservative elements of Iranian society, the most important being Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who continues to enjoy the support of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia. All told, the scenario is a recipe for prolonged street violence.
If the green movement were to overturn the election results and drastically alter the Iranian political system, their eventual success would certainly be a victory soaked in blood. The current Iranian political establishment is not nearly as bankrupt of popular support as the government of the Shah was. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad supporters should be expected to fight back, resulting in entrenched conflict. The fact that over 50% of Iran’s population is under twenty-five years old adds even more volatility to the situation, as it represents a nearly inexhaustible supply of manpower willing to take to the streets and press their cause.
Another important point to consider is that if the green movement is successful in overturning the election results, and the original vote was not rigged at all, it would essentially disenfranchise Ahmadinejad supporters, opening yet another rift that could in turn breed more political dissent and violence.
Given the presence of these countervailing forces within Iranian society, if the green movement was to actually emerge victorious, it would not produce a drastically different Iranian foreign policy. Unlike Eastern Europe, where newly democratized populations fled from Moscow’s ambit to the West, the West is perceived negatively by many in Iran, where anti-Americanism runs deep.
Far from only being a sentiment that is instrumental to those in the Iranian government, anti-Americanism is the widespread result of U.S. foreign policy misadventures such as the 1953 Mosaddeq coup and the more recent ‘Axis of Evil’ speech. Indeed, the sensitivity with which the Obama administration has handled public displays of support for Iran’s protestors indicates that officials in Washington are well aware that any overt displays of U.S. meddling could be instrumental in the Iranian government’s struggle to remain in power.
Ultimately what is most likely to occur is a bloody struggle that fails to produce any major direct changes in the Iranian political system.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: June 15 – 22, 2009
NORTH AMERICA
United States
Defense Department officials are debating whether to ignore an earlier promise and stop the release of an investigation into a U.S. airstrike last month, out of fear that its findings would further enrage the Afghan public, Pentagon officials said Monday.
North Korea’s missiles could hit the United States in as few as three years if the reclusive rogue nation continues to ramp up its weapons system, Pentagon officials said Tuesday.
The chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee came to the defense of the National Security Agency Wednesday, saying that the federal agency did not commit flagrant abuses in its program to intercept American’s phone calls and emails — but stopped short of denying that the agency had overstepped its bounds or broken the law.
The leaders of South Korea and the United States told North Korea to drop its atomic ambitions and stop threatening the region while media reports on Wednesday said Pyongyang was moving ahead with plans to launch a long-range missile.
The United States accused Syria on Thursday of obstructing a UN investigation into its nuclear activities, saying the list of questions was growing.
The U.S. military is tracking a ship from North Korea that may be carrying illicit weapons, the first vessel monitored under tougher new United Nations rules meant to rein in and punish the communist government following a nuclear test, officials said Thursday.
Brash Texas billionaire R. Allen Stanford was indicted and jailed Friday on charges his international banking empire was really just a Ponzi scheme built on lies, bluster and bribery.
The U.S. military is unlikely to discipline troops involved in an air strike in Afghanistan that killed up to 140 civilians, the top U.S. commander has said.
The U.S. military beefed up defenses in Hawaii on Friday over fears that North Korea could launch a missile toward the Pacific island chain.
SOUTH AMERICA
Colombia
A UN investigator criticized Colombia on Thursday for not doing enough to punish soldiers who killed innocent civilians and made them look like enemy guerrilla casualties.
Peru
The Peruvian prime minister has said he plans to resign in the coming weeks following the deaths of dozens of people in clashes between indigenous groups and police over land laws.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been accused of staging a cover-up after he ruled that an inquiry into the UK’s involvement in the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would be held in private.
Tony Blair was aware of the existence of a secret interrogation policy which effectively led to British citizens, and others, being tortured during counter-terrorism investigations, it has been revealed.
British police said that lawmakers would face criminal investigations into their expenses claims, in the latest twist of a scandal that has rocked the country’s politics.
EASTERN EUROPE
Georgia
Georgia on Tuesday warned that Russia’s veto of the extension of a UN mission in Abkhazia could fuel unrest and accused it of trying to hide “ethnic cleansing” in the Moscow-backed separatist enclave.
Ukraine
Ukrainian state-controlled arms export-import company Ukrspetsexport said on Thursday it had nothing to do with an arms shipment seized in Nigeria.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran
A protester was reportedly shot dead and several people were wounded during clashes in Tehran as massive crowds defied a ban to stage a rally against the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main rival in the disputed presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, massed in competing rallies Tuesday as the country’s most senior Islamic cleric threw his weight behind opposition charges that Ahmadinejad’s re-election was rigged.
Iran’s government accused the United States Wednesday of “intolerable” meddling for allegedly encouraging mass unrest following Friday’s disputed election.
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said on Thursday it had uncovered a foreign-linked terrorist plot to plant bombs in mosques and other crowded places in Tehran during the country’s June 12 presidential election.
Rights group Amnesty International said Friday it believed up to 10 people may have been killed in post-election protests in Iran, while condemning comments by the Islamic republic’s supreme leader
Turkey
Turkey’s government said on Monday it would take legal action over a suspected military plan to discredit the Islamist-rooted ruling AK Party as well as a powerful religious movement.
EAST ASIA
North Korea
North Korea has said that the two U.S. journalists sentenced last week to a labor camp have admitted to shooting a “smear” video on human rights in the country, the Yonhap news agency reported.
South Korea
North Korea is thought to have been developing a secret atomic weapons programme for seven or eight years despite taking part in long-running nuclear disarmament talks, a South Korean minister said Monday.
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan
Pakistani police arrested a militant on Wednesday they suspect was involved in an attack on Sri Lanka’s cricket team in Lahore in March.
Zachary Fillingham is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
