Geopolitics Weekly contextualizes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week.
Asia
This Week in Tariff Blowback: India Pivots toward Russia, China
What Happened
Indian and Russian foreign ministers met in Moscow on Thursday to reaffirm bilateral trade ties, notably proclaiming the very energy links that President Trump is attempting to unravel. The meeting came just one day after India Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with China’s foreign minister in New Delhi. There have also been rumblings of a possible revival of the RIC troika, a top-level Russia-India-China forum for trilateral cooperation that has waxed and waned since its inception in 2001.
Why It Matters
Recent articles on the website have expounded on the historical and political factors making it all but impossible for Prime Minister Modi to capitulate in the face of President Trump’s extraordinary tariff pressure. A pivot toward China and Russia is the natural alternative, where New Delhi signals a willingness to play hardball by demonstrating what Washington stands to lose if it does not alter course.
- Thawing Out India-China Relations? The Modi-Wang Yi meeting produced substantive steps to thaw out a bilateral relationship that has been strained since the Galwan Valley border skirmishes of 2020, notably in a resumption of direct flights and advancing various de-escalation mechanisms for contested borders. Prime Minister Modi also accepted an invitation to visit China for the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, marking his first visit to China since 2018. This all comes as a geopolitical godsend for China, which can now welcome its wayward neighbor back into the Global South flock after New Delhi erred in looking to create some strategic space with the ‘bully’ of Washington. Keep in mind: the additional 25% tariff doesn’t even come into force until August 27. If this was all a negotiating maneuver by the Trump administration, it seems to be backfiring.
