Turkey’s central bank has hiked its interest rate from 17.75% to 24% in an effort to stem the slide of the lira. The rate increase came in higher than the 22% expected in a Reuters poll of prominent economists.
So far the rate hike has produced its intended effect of shoring up the value of the beleaguered Turkish lira. The currency has been trading as much as 5% higher today on the news.
The lira had been struggling in the run-up to the central bank meeting, losing over 40% of its value this year and triggering contagion fears for other vulnerable emerging markets. The lira had been down as much as 3% today before the central bank announcement. The dip came after President Erdogan, the self-styled ‘enemy of interest rates,’ defied accepted wisdom by calling for a rate cut, decrying interest rates as a ‘tool of exploitation.’
Inflation has been accelerating in Turkey, reaching 18% in August. The inflation rate hovered around 15.5% through June and July.
What we saw today was a bit of political theatre for the benefit of global markets. The accepted dogma has been that Turkey’s central bank is not independent, and is susceptible to the whims of Erdogan’s executive branch. It followed that since Erdogan has a well-publicized aversion to high interest rates, the central bank wouldn’t be able to fulfil its mandate in an impartial way, opening the door to uncontrolled inflation.
It’s likely that today’s speech was intended to dispel these notions.
