Emerging markets are experiencing a wave of capital flight as the United States and Europe normalize their monetary policies, ease stimulus, and allow interest rates to increase, producing safer returns for global investors. The trend is pushing down the value of currencies throughout the developing world, creating new economic risks – particularly in countries with high levels of short-term USD-denominated debt.
The flight to safety has been slowly unfolding through the half of 2018 as the yield for 10-year US Treasuries ticked toward 3%. It has accelerated of late with higher-than-expected interest rate forecasts in the United States and in some cases a worsening economic outlook in certain emerging markets as capital flight cascades into dwindling foreign reserves, higher borrowing costs, and growth-dampening interest rate hikes.
Here are a few emerging markets to keep an eye on:
South Africa
The South African rand was down 2% at the start of trading on Friday, which is turning out to be a bad day for emerging market currencies around the world. Today’s drop left the rand at a six-month low, and investors have been dumping government debt to the tune of 1.4 billion rand a day. So far the central bank has resisted pressure to increase interest rates, likely due to a shock contraction of the GDP recorded in the first quarter. The strategy is in keeping with past policy of allowing the rand to float freely on a very wide band, and at 4.5% in April, inflation isn’t too much of a concern – yet.
