The results from the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections are in, and they’re not terribly surprising: the far-right Jair Bolsonaro and Lula’s heir-apparent Fernando Haddad made it through to the second round, which will take place on October 28.

What was surprising however was the margin of victory. Bolsonaro received 46% of the votes, narrowly missing the 50% threshold to avoid a run-off. Haddad trailed far behind with just 29% of the vote.

The gulf is wide enough to call into question the conventional logic of left-leaning voters banding together in the second round to defeat the upstart Bolsonaro.

Here are some takeaways from the election, and some trends to monitor as the second round approaches:

Impact

The ‘Trump of the Tropics’ wins round one. Like the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte, and countless other examples around the world, Jair Bolsonaro has been officially christened as a Trumpian analogue by the mainstream press. However, aside from his outsider status and off-the-cuff soundbites that play well in a politician-fatigued Brazilian electorate, there’s one aspect of Bolsonaro’s campaign that merits some closer attention. Unlike other candidates, Bolsonaro has made the everyday violence that many Brazilians endure a central and overriding plank of his campaign. It’s here where Bolsonaro is most substantively similar to Trump: he has elevated an issue that his fellow politicians have either demonstrably botched in the past or have simply chosen to ignore, much like Trump’s messaging focused on the impacts of global trade on US worker livelihoods. He does so using almost apocalyptic language (also like Trump); for example, Bolsonaro warned that Brazil was on “the brink of chaos” immediately after his first-round win.