The impending release of a US intelligence report on the assassination of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 signals a sea change in US policy toward the Middle East.
Gone is the deference that the Trump administration showed to the Saudi regime, notably toward its de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), who Trump once famously remarked ‘may or may not have’ ordered the Khashoggi execution. So too is US support for the Kingdom’s disastrous war in Yemen, and its no-questions-asked arms sales to Riyadh and its Gulf allies.
But you’d be forgiven for thinking this ‘new’ US foreign policy is a little familiar, since it’s precisely the kind of ‘strategic flexibility’ that the Obama administration sought in its years in office.
Analysis
We now have three strong signals that the Biden administration will adopt a starkly different posture toward Saudi Arabia than the one favored by its predecessor.
First was the withdrawal of support for the war on Yemen, though this is more symbolic than substantive given ongoing assistance for ‘defensive’ operations. Second is the temporary freeze on US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including F-35s that were part of the Abraham Accords establishing official diplomatic recognition with Israel. Though here too it should be noted that the deals are under review, which doesn’t necessarily mean they will be cancelled. Third is the impending release of the hitherto classified US intelligence report on the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi at a Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The Khashoggi report is expected to vindicate the open secret of Mohammad Bin Salman having ordered the grisly execution. Its release signals the return of human rights considerations into top-level US foreign policy.
Moreover, President Biden is expected to re-route top-level relations away from MBS and instead through his father, King Salman, who remains the de jure leader of the Kingdom despite being largely out of the public eye.
All three moves have the potential to harm the political fortunes of MBS: the war in Yemen was his personal project, and the sympathetic ear extended by President Trump helped facilitate his rise to power. His being sidelined by the Biden administration will test his position within the royal family, but it’s one that he’ll likely pass given the lack of suitable alternatives and his enduring bond with the Saudi king. We may however eventually see the release of Mohammed bin Nayef, the former crown prince and a longstanding US ally who the Obama administration frequently worked with. Mohammed bin Nayef has been detained without charge since March 2020. In November of last year, he became the target of an apparently coordinated social media campaign accusing him of working to overthrow King Salman.
The Biden vision for US Middle East policy
President Biden’s Middle East policy goals mirror those of the Obama administration he served in previously. They include minimizing US reliance on Saudi Arabia and, by extension, the need to support the Kingdom’s regional adventures.
US relations with Iran are the other side of this coin. It’s no secret that President Biden is seeking to revive the Iran nuclear deal, and many of the administration’s top-level appointments were personally involved in negotiating the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, reviving the deal will be easier said than done. There’s the problem of anti-US sentiments in Iran’s domestic politics, the trust deficit following the demise of the first deal, and grievances over certain aspects of the original JCPOA terms (for the US, its sunset clauses, and for Iran, the underwhelming economic returns from sanction relief). In light of these headwinds, it’s not terribly surprising that the Biden administration’s early overtures to Tehran have been rejected out of hand.
