Antonio Graceffo

Iran Nuclear Program Nears “Breakout”

cc US Department of State, Wikicommons, A view of the Blue Salon at the Palais Coburg hotel in Vienna, Austria, the 19th-century, Neoclassical former palace for Prince Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg, where most of the bilateral meetings between the United States, other P5+1 countries, European Union, and Iran took place, as well as one-on-one meetings between Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Secretary Kerry sat on the left side of the table, third chair from the bottom, and Minister Zarif sat directly across on the right side of the table. [State Department photo/ Public Domain]

The post-JCPOA Iran nuclear program is edging toward the ‘breakout’ point, leading to some difficult choices for the next US administration.

Protests Erupt as Debt-Laden Kenya Tests Limits of Austerity

cc Capital FM Kenya, modified, 2024 Kenya protests, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=kenya%20protest&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Kenya_2024_protests_(17).jpg

Suffocating debt payments have ignited a wave of protests against the Ruto administration, posing a major challenge to the integrity of Kenya’s state institutions.

The View from Japan’s Military: Intensifying Great Power Competition

KUMAMOTO, Japan (April 19, 2016) An MV-22B Osprey aircraft from Marine Medium Tilitrotor Squadron (VMM) 265 attached to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit departs JS Hyuga (DDH 181) in support of the Government of Japan's relief efforts following earthquakes near Kumamoto. The long-standing alliance between Japan and the U.S. allows U.S. military forces in Japan to provide rapid, integrated support to the Japan Self-Defense Force and civil relief efforts. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Gabriel B. Kotico/Released) 160419-N-AE545-640 Join the conversation: http://www.navy.mil/viewGallery.asp http://www.facebook.com/USNavy http://www.twitter.com/USNavy http://navylive.dodlive.mil http://pinterest.com https://plus.google.com

Japan’s annual China Security Report sees the zero-sum competition for and against the current international order only intensifying in the years to come.

China’s Arm Sales and Military Diplomacy in Africa

cc, modified, https://www.cusnc.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/2882728/us-navy-seizes-1400-assault-rifles-during-illicit-weapons-interdiction/, U.S. Navy Seizes 1,400 Assault Rifles During Illicit Weapons Interdiction

Examining how Beijing bolsters African ties via an effective combination of arms sales, military diplomacy, and logistical infrastructure investment.

Backgrounder: 2024 Russia-DPRK Pact

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74327

The Russia-DPRK pact falls short of being a geopolitical game-changer, but it is reflective of an evolving Asia-Pacific security framework.

Russian Economy: Post-Ukraine War Sanctions and the Energy Sector

cc Flickr Glenn Beltz,modified, https://flickr.com/photos/n28307/33200942298/in/photolist-SzRvrC-2hBksnf-2hLfSNc-2i4K6EB-2i4pnnM-2dZTpah-2euF7o8-2hiVcbD-2hMrzuj-25WYghM-2eBnBvG-3KAozn-4FawhR-jiUx9-6bL1gX-6Ez632-6Ez61B-jiUqV-69vEai-ccWzWG-9pLRJn-2eG9ZZV-QmzGca-2jRZVcc-2i5SW4Q-RRrAUS-zZPeGW-2jtUuKU-A1gkT1-zZP5A9-zLKnTV-zL5akW-z7Nhas-z54Jbo-A1oxMr-z3TTDN-zMuCTj-bcTn8P-zJwQ1n-z5bJqC-A3e67q-A2REWY-RruHiW-jzaouT-A3dYCJ-zLBq9m-zahV4t-zMAc6d-A2T22W-z7msaQ

The Russian economy, supported by its energy sector, has successfully weathered the brunt of Western sanctions so far. But this resilience is predicated on China’s unwavering support and pre-war reserves, both of which are finite.

Tatmadaw’s Existential Fight Dragging Down Myanmar’s Economy

(Myanmar Civil War) Burma Army BTR-3u deployed in Yangon. cc Wunna Sithu Min Payar, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Burma_Army_BTR-3u.png

A national economy in free-fall won’t impact the strategic calculations of a ruling junta which views the Myanmar civil war as an existential conflict.

Backgrounder: US Military Budget 2025

US Department of Defense, modified, A formation of Royal Australian Air Force aircraft fly over Avalon Airport at Geelong, Victoria, Australia, Feb. 25, 2019. Along with Australian aircraft, U.S. military aircraft were to be showcased through flight demonstrations and static displays during the 2019 Australian International Airshow and Aerospace & Defence Exposition. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Sergio A. Gamboa) www.dvidshub.net, https://flickr.com/photos/39955793@N07/46495003394/

The US military budget for 2025 maintains the traditional defense posture of out-spending any near-peer competitor; however, its only getting harder to keep pace.

Backgrounder: Iran Power Projection in Wartime

cc Tasnim News Agency, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=iran%20drone&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Iranian_drone_exercise_in_2022_-_Day_2_(52).jpg

Assessing Iran’s ability to wage war across the domains of politics, military, economy, and diplomacy.

Middle East Meth Crisis: A Destabilizing Trend

cc Mark Stroud, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/markstroud/7951679578/in/photolist-8PLWnK-ej8V3P-9EK4Ns-81MRRf-81K1G6-bs9TR3-62jWoe-drhG2X-62pdqA-62iAer-bs9TSU-7f9Jof-62nPWE-62iyGR-81Na57-bF4N7g-81MQdf-bF4NeT-7PXF82-7ujqo6-81MQTm-81MRBm-81MRi7-bF4Ndi-9CZLjW-76Lox8-d7Efjf-htm4Jr-9EG9jk-62nTzJ-81N9Qq-62pbXm-62jVre-5Zsnm8-5ZwCnW-7G91jC-62nNAS-81N9io-5ZsAWx-p7Sp3M-7G52MV-q4rzxx-5ZwKR3-5BWeE3-d7EriL-2pf9F1x-d7EtLQ-d7Ev4o-5BWeGu-5GgxxS

The discovery of ephedra plants in Afghanistan and a booming end-user market in the Gulf States is fueling a growing drug crisis across the Middle East.

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