Tatmadaw’s Existential Fight Dragging Down Myanmar’s Economy

(Myanmar Civil War) Burma Army BTR-3u deployed in Yangon. cc Wunna Sithu Min Payar, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Burma_Army_BTR-3u.png

A 2021 military coup launched the Myanmar civil war; now, three years later, the conflict’s economic damage is being compounded with every passing month. Myanmar’s GDP plummeted by 17.9% after the coup and only recovered with about 3% growth last year. This year, the Myanmar economy is projected to grow by only 1%, indicating that it will take decades to recover to pre-coup levels. The country is grappling with a collapsing currency, declining exports, rising unemployment, and a severe humanitarian crisis, with three million people internally displaced at present. Thousands, including opposition party members, human rights activists, workers, attorneys, regime critics, and labor leaders, have been jailed. Nearly half of the population now lives below the poverty line of 76 cents per day, leaving 18 million in need of humanitarian aid.

International sanctions against the regime, economic mismanagement, and poor governance have further crippled the Myanmar economy. The regime is increasingly prioritizing military spending to maintain control, diverting resources away from basic needs. As a result, spending on public health and education has been cut nearly in half.

The Myanmar kyat has lost about 55% of its value against the dollar since the coup began, giving rise to a severe banking crisis. Government-imposed currency controls to prevent capital flight have left businesses struggling to find US dollars for imported goods and raw materials, exacerbating the food crisis by making it difficult to import farm equipment and fertilizer. In April 2022, the military government mandated the conversion of US dollar accounts to kyat, restricting US dollars to certified importers at an arbitrary government exchange rate, making them expensive and scarce. Sending money out of the country now requires special approval.

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