Alec Soltes

Eritrea Succession: A War Waiting to Happen

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71830

The highly personalized nature of the Eritrea regime has allowed Isaias Afwerki to remain in power for decades, but there’s neither a plan nor an institutional mechanism to stabilize the country when he passes away.

Lessons from the Ukraine War

cc Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, modified, 2014, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Anti-terrorist_operation_in_eastern_Ukraine_%28War_Ukraine%29_%2827187320542%29.jpg

The Ukraine war illustrates how the existing rules-based order must adapt to a world where no one country or bloc can dictate policy to the rest, or face collapse.

Kurds: Dream of Independence, Settle for Autonomy

cc Flickr Kurdistan, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/kurdistan4all/3349984068

With practical considerations putting the dream of an independent state increasingly out of reach for Kurdish people in the Middle East, many groups are recalibrating their goals toward greater autonomy.

A Better Tomorrow? Takeaways from the 2020 Belarus Protests

cc Максим Шикунец, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Protest_actions_in_Minsk_%28Belarus%29_near_Stella,_August_16.jpg

The 2020 Belarus protests brought the Lukashenko to the brink before swiftly fading away. Here’s what the movement did right, where it slipped up, and what it means for future democratic activism.

Liberia Provides Lessons for Syria Reconstruction

cc VOA, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Azaz_Syria_during_the_Syrian_Civil_War_Missing_front_of_House.jpg

Reconstruction, peace and reconciliation, and institution-building will all be necessary for peace and stability to return to Syria. Liberia’s post-war experience offers valuable lessons for each one.

South Sudan Poised for Return to Civil War

Salva Kiir, president of semi-autonomous South Sudan, waits to receive Omar al Bashir on his visit to the southern capital Juba., cc Al Jazeera, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/aljazeeraenglish/5322957825

There are alarming signs that history is about to repeat as domestic political factions position themselves for a return to civil conflict in South Sudan.

Could Türkiye Lead a Ukraine Peacekeeping Force?

Ministry of Defense, Ukraine, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/31860557741/in/photolist-QxpFP4-Hd3FbM-QxpFXa-7g7HyK-QEqH6y-kL19vr-QHH2MR-Pud8CF-E1Vh4C-QHH2Kr-Pud8Hv-nU4Psp-x8qM3m-QxpFRZ-QEqHaw-2m59ewN-Q9GvVQ-2mNbrcF-Q9GwH1-QxpFVg-2j4vK6c-w2W1Vq-2mUYRG9-PrtnbG-QxpFvD-GEXoru-e7eLH6-2jz7dtf-vKX2L3-yyiM3C-27z4RVC-2m9dxvs-2juu76T-23xsQHB-2m7YByD-2mQfy4D-2mnWw9M-2mY4nuL-2iujahQ-kL17xZ-2m3ccuW-2g9728A-Hd3Fz2-WWpmoN-v6xDYW-2hu7uuM-WWpmkS-FMDDMq-2mW948B-L1L9RK

A hypothetical peacekeeping contingent in post-war Ukraine would be fraught with logistical, financial, and diplomatic difficulties. But Türkiye might be best placed to form its core.

Grand Tortue Ahmeyim Field Boosts Senegal and Mauritania Gas Production

cc Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement BSEE , modified, https://flickr.com/photos/bseegov/15416983543/in/photolist-pum566-2kjEBFg-2jHqnSn-oUNC5c-G9aiu7-2aoc5D3-48P43y-7YvJ2m-2jE8TiT-ffucmq-2ixHwUk-H4FfRp-H4FduR-nFb4tT-SzaSY2-VZMQRc-8nX15C-Lg9izQ-r57uBp-2nGa8RF-2emn8F5-2agozm1-JUj8CT-bxgaFR-2kjAhSy-RNhKt4-SkizJY-KB1VgQ-unSk6K-H4FbVi-noYkVY-MUbSqm-8nX3SY-ffubTC-9m6ZKx-C8AVYu-EpQg1y-aYMcst-ToDCCX-FE5JtB-LvARG7-2hyUVmJ-21Vukas-7YvG7E-wHGkVe-wHzja3-nDqoHd-TykDsy-wHzj91-Tqx55a / Platforms Ellen and Elly offshore near Long Beach, Calif in BSEE

While not necessarily a game-change in the short term, the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim natural gas field will reinforce positive development in the economies of Senegal and Mauritania.

Wagner Group in CAR: Not Quite a Success Story

cc adrienblanc, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/adrienblanc85/29224676165/in/photolist-Lwu73Z-PHBZfm-Jmis8W-KPTZMJ-KPU15s-2ebBrXi-QeJrkw-QeJrhf-NBjs2H-NBjrVv-2ci4tMW-QeETL5-2ci4tNY

Examining the role of the Wagner Group in Central African Republic, a theater often cited as a success for the Russian private military company.

M23 Talks Stall as Violence Flares in Eastern DRC

M23 Rebels in 2012; cc Al Jazeera, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/aljazeeraenglish/7580534258

A renewed wave of hostilities between Rwanda- and government-backed rebels has broken out in eastern DRC, with both sides vying to control lucrative mining areas.

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