FORECAST

President Obama’s decision to deploy an additional 30,000 troops in Afghanistan has obscured an equally important development: the intensification of U.S operations in Pakistan.

According to the New York Times, the C.I.A recently presented a plan to President Obama proposing an expansion of drone strikes in Pakistan, an increase in C.I.A spies and a bolstered budget for agency operations in the country. The plan mirrors Washington’s rejuvenated commitment to Afghan security, and ultimately hopes to link up with the Pakistani military’s ongoing campaign in South Waziristan. This would keep pressure on Afghan and Pakistan Taliban militants in Pakistan’s FATA region.

The plan itself is incendiary for sovereignty-minded Pakistani government officials, and can be interpreted as the dawn of a tougher U.S stance on Pakistan. There are several indications that, at the very least, portions of the highly classified plan have been implemented, as evidenced by subtle shifts in how the Obama administration is treating its Pakistani counterpart.

There is no better indicator of a tougher stance than President Obama’sdecision to resurrect the long-dead specter of Pakistan nuclear weapons in a recent speech. Pakistani government officials cringe at such mentions, for it feeds into fears within the Pakistani security establishment that the security of Pakistani nukes will one day serve as justification for an American intervention in Pakistan. The widening of drone strikes to Pakistan’s Baluchistan province is also notable, because any civilian casualties in strikes against Taliban militants will inevitably embolden Baluchistan separatist elements.

This all takes place against the backdrop of a terminally weak Pakistani government in Islamabad. President Zardari is facing down Supreme Court deliberations over the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO)- a corruption amnesty introduced by the Musharraf government. If the NRO is scuttled, standing parliamentarians as well as the President himself could lose their office, a development that would throw the government into chaos.

The Pakistani military campaign against Pakistan Taliban militants in South Waziristan has met with early success, but reports suggest that militants have merely withdrawn to the mountains and are now preparing for an extended guerrilla war.

Finally, Pakistan is facing a serious energy shortage in the coming decades; one that could intensify disillusionment with Islamabad and fuel widespread civil strife.

A government in Washington that is less and less inclined to take Pakistani security and interests into consideration is one that will lean heavily on drone strikes. Afghan and Pakistan Taliban militant sanctuaries in the border areas will continue to loom as an extremely high security priority for the Pentagon in the decades to come. If American officials are convinced that their partner in Islamabad cannot secure the area, then drone strikes become an extremely appealing course of action, if anything because they create the perception of action for domestic political consumption in America.

Taken as a whole, it seems that the C.I.A will be operating in Pakistan for a long time to come. If the most optimistic forecasts of Afghanistan come to pass and NATO leaves behind a stable government in a few years, then expect a U.S military base to remain, poised and ready to intervene in Pakistan if the need arises.

 

SUMMARY OF EVENTS: November 30 – December 7, 2009

NORTH AMERICA

United States

The price of gold has hit a record high of $1,200 an ounce on the London Bullion Market due to a weak US dollar.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of lobbyists are  to be ejected from federal advisory panels as part of a little-noticed initiative by the Obama administration to curb K Street’s influence in Washington.

CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

Honduras

Mercosur trade bloc countries said on Tuesday they would not recognize the results of the Honduran presidential polls and condemned the July 28 military coup in the country.

The United States has recognized the result of the controversial Honduran election amid denunciations from Latin American states.

SOUTH AMERICA

Colombia

Colombia said on Friday Venezuelan troops had blown up another makeshift bridge across their frontier and were holding a Colombian soldier who crossed the border in the latest incidents to test fraying ties.

Venezuela

President Hugo Chavez said Monday that Venezuela has received thousands of Russian-made missiles and rocket launchers as part of his government’s military preparations for a possible armed conflict with neighboring Colombia.

EASTERN EUROPE

Russia

Top Russian and US officials held talks in Moscow Monday dealing with the expired START nuclear weapons treaty. A new deal could be reached by December 18.

MIDDLE EAST

Iraq

Five massive vehicle-borne bombs rocked Baghdad on Tuesday, killing 127 people, including women and students.

United Arab Emirates

As Dubai World and its creditors steel themselves for tough negotiations over the conglomerate’s debt, some foreign investors say they have enough support to force the company into a default and lay claim to its most prized assets.

EAST ASIA

North Korea

President Barack Obama’s first envoy to North Korea arrived in Pyongyang on Tuesday to try to coax the prickly state back to the nuclear talks. U.S. envoy to push for nuclear talks without offering it any new incentives.

SOUTH ASIA

Afghanistan

President Barack Obama ordered an additional 30,000 U.S. troops into the long war in Afghanistan Tuesday night, nearly tripling the force he inherited as commander in chief. He promised the public he would begin bringing units home in 18 months.

Pakistan

Bomb blasts tore through two of Pakistan’s main cities on Monday killing at least 46 people and wounding more than 100.

A suspected U.S. drone fired two missiles into an al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuary in a Pakistani region the Afghan border on Tuesday, killing at least three militants.

AFRICA

Congo

An American company, Niotan Inc’s purchase of minerals looted from eastern Congo is helping to finance a decade-long war that has claimed the lives of millions of civilians, an unpublished United Nations report claims.

Somalia

At least 19 people were killed including three government ministers after an explosion ripped through the Shamo Hotel in Mogadishu, the Somali capital.