Geopolitics Weekly contextualizes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week.
Europe
Political Crisis Brewing in Bosnia
What Happened
A slow-moving political crisis has unfolded in Bosnia & Herzegovina (BIS) over the course of 2025:
- February 26: Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik is sentenced to one year in prison and a six-year ban on political activity for separatist activities. Dodik refuses to accept the jurisdiction of the court.
- March 27: A nation-wide arrest warrant is issued for Dodik.
- May 21: State police attempt to execute the warrant and arrest Dodik, but they are blocked and opt not to escalate.
- May 28: The Guardian reports that a 300-strong contingent of elite Hungarian police officers have crossed into the Republika Srpska (the Serbian sub-state in BIH) for training purposes, despite having crossed in civilian clothes and not informing the federal BIH government in Sarajevo.
Why It Matters
- A Local Conflict with Wider Geopolitical Consequences: There are geopolitical dynamics unfolding behind the scenes. Milorad Dodik is a strongly pro-Russia figure, and his political project of merging the Republika Srpska into Serbia is backed by Moscow (and Belgrade). Hungary has also frequently intervened in favor of Dodik, providing economic and diplomatic support, often enraging officials in Brussels who are focused on shoring up the post-war federal structure of BIH. One of President Biden’s final acts in government was to slap sanctions on Dodik for undermining the rule of law in BIH, and despite its overall softer line on Russia, the Trump administration has yet to remove these sanctions. Amidst all of the diplomatic positioning, Serbia has been quietly rearming and gradually tilting the strategic balance in its favor over the past few years.
