The preliminary results are in for Turkey’s local elections, and at first glance they don’t look good for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

In the capital of Ankara, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate took 50.9 percent of the vote, over the AKP’s 47.2 percent. In Istanbul – where President Erdogan served as mayor from 1994-1998 – the margin was much closer, with the CHP candidate taking 48.8 percent to the AKP’s 48.5 percent. In Izmir, the country’s third-largest city, the opposition CHP ran away with it, taking 58 percent to the AKP’s 38.5 percent.

Though the results aren’t favorable for the AKP in the three largest cities, nation-wide its alliance pulled 51.6% of the vote, which suggests sustained support even in these trying times for the Turkish economy.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Will Erdogan accept the result? Losing is a relatively new thing for the ruling AKP. The party has dominated every election since coming to power in 2002, owing to a combination of its economic stewardship and a divided opposition movement. Fast-forward to 2019 and the AKP enjoys some sizable institutional advantages through favorable media coverage, a politically purged military, civil service, and academia, and an all-but-outlawed People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which has removed Turkey’s Kurdish population from its previous (and very brief) kingmaker role. Yet the AKP still managed to lose in these local elections. Now the question becomes: Will Erdogan graciously accept the result? Early indications suggest that the answer is ‘no.’ The president has already alleged irregularities and is challenging the result in every district of Istanbul, where, incidentally, huge banners have already gone up congratulating AKP candidate Binali Yildirim on his victory. AKP officials have also indicated that the party will challenge the result in Ankara as well.