Iraqi forces have begun their push to re-take Fallujah, a city that became notorious over a decade ago for its tenacious resistance to occupying US forces.

There’s no reason to believe that progress on the battlefield will come easier this time around.

Fallujah is a major city in Iraq’s Anbar province, located just 70 km from Baghdad, and home to a predominantly Sunni population. This sympathetic ear from the locals – at least initially – helped it become the first major urban center to slip from Baghdad’s grip back in late 2013-2014. The city has been controlled by Islamic State (ISIS) ever since.

The Iraqi government is trying to change all that now by scoring a major victory in the south ahead of the real prize of Mosul. Yet any early triumphalism on the battlefield should be tempered by the guerilla nature of the ISIS campaign, and the ease with which sectarian clashes could break out.

The third battle of Fallujah projects to be a long and bloody one.

Background

The assault on Fallujah is already underway. Iraqi government forces, backed up by paramilitary Shiite militias, have reportedly entered the city from three different directions. The international coalition is providing air support for the operation.

The battle projects to be long and bloody, both in terms of combatants and civilians. Few residents of Fallujah have been able to flee, and estimates put anywhere from 50,000-100,000 people still living in the city.

The Fallujah operation is just one front in a wider offensive against Islamic State’s holdings in Iraq and Syria.