Us Sanctions News & Analysis

“Hormuz Safe”: Iran’s Fifth Layer of Maritime Sovereignty

The U.S. Military sealift command dry cargo ship USNS PFC Dewayne T. Williams (T-AK-3009) transits the Strait of Hormuz on 17 April 2020.; cc US Navy, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USNS_PFC_Dewayne_T._Williams_%28T-AK-3009%29_underway_in_the_Strait_of_Hormuz_on_17_April_2020_%28200417-N-PI330-0057%29.JPG

For Washington, Iran’s “Hormuz Safe” scheme is a dangerous proposition, demonstrating that a sanctioned state can build its own maritime financial infrastructure, bypassing Lloyd's, the dollar, and US sanctions simultaneously.

Five Years in the Drawer: Iran War a Laboratory for China’s Sanction Busting

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820

Obscured by a sea of war-related headlines, China is perfecting its domestic sanction-busting apparatus – not for the Iran war of today, but the Taiwan conflict of tomorrow.

Geopolitics Weekly (Ukraine Shadow Fleet, ISIS Strikes, Thai-Cambodia Conflict)

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This week we examine the expanding quantity and range of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian shadow fleet tankers, a US ‘declaration of vengeance’ against ISIS in Syria, and how the Thai-Cambodia conflict reflects a global system in flux.

Geopolitics Weekly (US-Australia Rare Earths Deal, Carrier Strike Group in Caribbean)

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This week we cover new US sanctions against Russian oil majors, the deployment of a US Carrier Strike Group to the Caribbean, a US-Australia rare earths deal, and the outcome of highly consequential midterm elections in Argentina.

Russia’s Shadow Fleet: A Masterclass in Sanctions Evasion

Ship Name: BRO NISSUM / Ship Type: Oil Products Tanker. The tanker is mainly used for the transport of petroleum products. / Photo illustrative; ship is not part of Russia's shadow fleet / cc r W. Bulach, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:00_0558_Oil_tankers.jpg

Russia’s shadow fleet has blunted the impact of Western energy sanctions, and other sanctioned states will seek to duplicate the trick in the future.

How the Russian Economy Survives Western Sanctions

cc Presidential Executive Office of Russia, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin-Xi_meeting_%282023%29_3.jpg

Bolstered by illicit and licit trade flows, the Russian economy appears to be weathering the sanction storm amid the Ukraine war.

Bitcoin and Geopolitical Rivalry

cc Ivan Radic, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/26344495@N05/51129025742/in/photolist-2kU6C3A-a1DE33-ekr8ne-qEVFcv-2i7JL36-25cUm8u-hyiUr5-PxLUq1-Q4keqU-PxLV3y-Q4keEb-PTHtaE-2kp1jtT-frS34B-hyiErG-q3Dorc-hyjhPE-hyiN7b-p4KUT8-hykh9P-hyiHCk-hykqj6-frS6bV-hyjroU-hyjmuq-hyiwqk-hyjpGh-hyjnij-hykpRT-hyiNRh-fs7uis-hyivyk-frS28r-fs7ujW-26m5nuL-jyh8zz-iGPKVR-iH8J6m-iHwsdH-ooXhDK-wYRxkw-xfG8YL-q8FG8r-nU1PQx-nzJp2D-euwXcZ-nQaWnj-nzJfRc-nRVzeP-nRURxH

Examining the hypothetical potential of Bitcoin as a tool of geoeconomic conflict, and the nascent examples that are already emerging.

Monetary Consequences of the Ukraine War

cc Andrzej Barabasz (Chepry), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:400-oz-Gold-Bars-AB-01.jpg

Examining the long-term geoeconomic consequences of the Ukraine war, notably the ongoing viability of the US dollar as global currency and the possibility of a future return to the gold standard.

Dedollarization and the Wane of Western Sanctions

cc Eli Christman, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/gammaman/6242455757/in/photolist-avCdBx-2hjuJz4-2i126K3-2hYCbCm-JsEXer-6HPouy-buhotj-2gUhgNH-M4fzZf-2eaQUFf-2jFhzCL-2i6vvPJ-s684tk-2gTDx9A-tiXJrU-DYiqkV-HyZshN-M4fzLQ-J3tY7t-29U79uz-LPqHiX-bHbSYc-2iceomd-2b95Cx9-BuCYBg-buid67-gmMFuK-owr93E-bHd2uK-2m4ZruN-28UaAGN-bGpQcX-2hxJ5Yo-242HwkK-2hCqSPn-buh4Q5-5MW23a-2i7kMTA-2i8yVdk-2iak8pu-2i3kpKd-zwKcc-2i8ggPA-bHd314-2i8QHAo-nfckUq-2i7gMr6-2kbCXwS-SSLhvc-2n37D17

Non-dollar alternatives for settling global trade continue to expand in the wake of the Ukraine war.

Gauging the Efficacy of Western Sanctions on the Russian Economy

An oil refinery in Yaroslavl town, Russia, cc Svtk44, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Yaroslavnefteorgsintez_oil_refinery_plant.jpg

Macroeconomic indicators can be deceptive when assessing the ongoing impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.

Unintended Consequences Abound with New US Sanctions on Syria

Syria, CC Flickr, Isaac, Modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/yishac/9384838325/in/, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/

The US ‘Caesar sanctions,’ aimed at forcing the Assad regime to negotiate, could potentially further immiserate the country’s long-suffering people.

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