Nagorno-Karabakh News & Analysis

Geopolitical Orientation on the Ballot in Armenia Elections

The Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan addressed MEPs in the European Parliament’s hemicycle in Strasbourg on Tuesday. In his address, Mr Pashinyan expressed his staunch defence of democratic principles against the backdrop of the multifaceted crises Armenia has been confronted with in recent years, particularly highlighting the turbulent aftermath of the 2020-2021 war and border conflict with Azerbaijan. He sought to defy those claiming that Armenia is suffering because it is a democracy, instead saying that his country would be paralysed and lose its independence and sovereignty if it was not democratic. Referring to Azerbaijan’s recent attack and recapture of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, he said that Baku did so in “fulfilment of its long-standing policy of ethnic cleansing”. He also described the horrible humanitarian situation created by Azerbaijan’s long blockade of the Lachin corridor and offered a sharp rebuke to Moscow after Baku’s latest offensive.

Armenians head to the polls on June 7. The election outcome will affect not just domestic governance, but Armenia’s geopolitical orientation going forward, with consequences for the peace process with Azerbaijan and wider stability across the South Caucasus.

Power TRIPP: The Trump Route and the Logic of Transactional Diplomacy

TRIPP-Armenia-Azerbaijan

The Trump Route for International Peace (TRIPP) perfectly encapsulates the US president’s preferred style of foreign policy: power exercised through transactional deals rather than institutions, profits rather than principled values, and ultimately the erosion of the US-led liberal order.

Washington’s Gambit: How the US Is Rebooting the Geopolitics of the South Caucasus

August 8, 2025 peace deal signing ceremony / cc White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/president-trump-brokers-another-historic-peace-deal/

The recent Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal underscores the new geopolitics of the South Caucasus, one where the region is no longer merely a post-Soviet periphery but a pivotal crossroads in broader global strategic competition.

How Incremental Diplomacy Built the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement

Azerbaijan Armenia flags, Generated by Google Gemini AI on August 15, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement illustrates the critical role that incremental diplomacy can play in conflict resolution. It’s also one where middle powers can take the lead.

Trump Armenia–Azerbaijan Deal: Eroding Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus

cc White House, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/president-trump-brokers-another-historic-peace-deal/

The chaotic conclusion of the decades-long Nagorno-Karabakh dispute was a blow to Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Now Washington is moving to fill the vacuum.

Historical Echoes: The Partition of Poland and the South Caucasus

cc European Parliament, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/53271694274/in/photolist-2pH9iu6-2fJxX9Z-2hRgpDo-2nPpJnV-2nPppBc-2nPo8zY-2papxpG-2parmKu-2hRdTU9-2parmPN-2parmNF-2pajXKb-2paqZZ5-2pX2KJX-2ewMNJC-2par1ey-2par19J-2parmQE-2pajXDE-2pajY5Q-2papxra-2papx6v-2prDwkP-2qhnHwa-2pgtsKB-2pgr9dm-2pgDm1i-2pgDhio-2pgjYsq-2pgsiqu; The Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan addressed MEPs in the European Parliament’s hemicycle in Strasbourg on Tuesday. In his address, Mr Pashinyan expressed his staunch defence of democratic principles against the backdrop of the multifaceted crises Armenia has been confronted with in recent years, particularly highlighting the turbulent aftermath of the 2020-2021 war and border conflict with Azerbaijan. He sought to defy those claiming that Armenia is suffering because it is a democracy, instead saying that his country would be paralysed and lose its independence and sovereignty if it was not democratic. Referring to Azerbaijan’s recent attack and recapture of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, he said that Baku did so in “fulfilment of its long-standing policy of ethnic cleansing”. He also described the horrible humanitarian situation created by Azerbaijan’s long blockade of the Lachin corridor and offered a sharp rebuke to Moscow after Baku’s latest offensive.

A parallel can be drawn between the 1939 partition of Poland and the contemporary geopolitics of the South Caucasus. And like the 1939 crisis, the current situation could have profound effects on regional stability and global security.

Is Turkey Too Big to Fail or Too Small to Bail?

cc http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59830, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59830

Turkey has routinely flouted NATO and U.S. interests while Washington looks the other way out of concern of alienating its ‘too big to fail’ ally. It’s time to strip Ankara of this exceptional status.

Western Weapons Made the Difference in Ukraine and the Second Karabakh War

IWAKUNI, Japan (Aug. 29, 2017) Service members with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), 2nd Air Defense Missile Group, set up the MIM-104 Patriot Missile System during Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) deployment training at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan. PAC-3 is a surface-to-air missile defense system, which provides a highly reactive hit-to-kill capability in both range and altitude while operating in all environments. This training displays the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance and demonstrates the JASDF’s ability to rapidly deploy multiple defense assets to U.S. military installations across Japan. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Aaron Henson/Released)170829-M-RP664-0132 Join the conversation: http://www.navy.mil/viewGallery.asp http://www.facebook.com/USNavy http://www.twitter.com/USNavy http://navylive.dodlive.mil http://pinterest.com https://plus.google.com

The superiority of Western weapons and training, at least vis-à-vis Russian military equipment, has been established beyond a doubt on the battlefields of Karabakh and Ukraine.

Elbit Systems Scandal Forces Hard Choices on Danish Government

cc News Oresund, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=Jakob%20Ellemann-Jensen&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:20200612_Altinget_Jakob_Elleman_Jensen_750A4304-2.jpg

The Danish government is being forced to choose between keeping its squeak-clean reputation and acquiring the world’s best killing machines.

Azerbaijan’s Actions in Nagorno-Karabakh Represent Its ‘Russia’ Moment

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67837

The EU must sanction Azerbaijan, even if the time for action has already passed for the indigenous Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia’s Existential Crisis: Understanding the Siege of Artsakh

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/AM/events/70060

An emboldened Ilham Aliyev is taking advantage of the Lachin blockade to stoke the flames of prejudice and push Azeri forces into Armenia proper.

Biden’s Next Regional Nightmare

cc U.S. Secretary of Defense, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/50934779452

The Biden administration must act decisively on Nagorno-Karabakh if it wants to be on the right side of history and avert another Armenian genocide.

Echoes of Mount Lebanon Famine in Blockade of Lachin Corridor

cc Mahammad Turkman, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Environmental_action_on_Lachin_-_Khankendi_road_6.jpg

The international community must act lest it risk a repeat of past genocides.

Why Washington Is Reluctant to Help Armenia

EUMAs monitor within Armenia looking at Azerbaijan's military checkpoint on the Lachin corridor and the blocked humanitarian convoy of trucks that was sent to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), modified, cc EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA), an entity of the European-Commission; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EUMA_monitors_within_Armenia_looking_at_the_Azerbaijani_military_checkpoint_and_the_humanitarian_convoy_of_trucks_is_blocked_on_the_Lachin_corridor_into_Artsakh_(Nagorno-Karabakh).jpg

Geopolitical considerations are keeping Washington from extending a helping hand to Yerevan amid a punishing blockade of Armenians living in Nagorno Karabakh.

South Caucasus Tensions Come to a Head at UNSC Special Session

cc GPA Photo Archive, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/iip-photo-archive/29688291226/in/photolist-MesfE7-2nmkxKU-2nmi4LY-2nmhTSX-69ZkpL-2oDDTHJ-2muYfhy-avA2Jy-24cRT8u-2oDyNGP-2k4hXpi-2nmhTBu-cXHNWw-2nmhUmR-2nmhWVv-2nmhSjQ-26WCeBE-n2daq-nskAiw-fASpFx-QNjjiq-RdK7P9-28j1WFv-Qzt5V-2i92Rjx-QzTKC-2gks9AV-2iYWnBg-8CVYtV-UAsH5X-28jiEs4-H7xeJi-MyLDQh-MesfMm-Y1wFUn-5oauG5-244UgRT-Qwe1r-2aZ7xqk-XdaYiV-6cUCwU-a73udb-FGb6hy-UKqPxJ-2i8ZiYN-2i8Zj2D-Qy7N6-2i92Rgb-2i8Zj7i-2i92Rni

Examining the possible outcomes when the UN Security Council (UNSC) meets this week to deliberate on the issue of the Lachin road.

Azerbaijan Losing Patience with Armenia’s Pashinyan

cc http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68246, modified,

Duplicity and indecisiveness continue to get in the way of a long-term peace settlement in Karabakh, and time is running out.

War, Peace, and Western Double-Standards: Ukraine and Azerbaijan Compared

Bucha, Ukraine following the Russian invasion. cc U.S. Embassy Kyiv Ukraine, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=bucha%20ukraine&fulltext=Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&title=Special:Search&advanced=1&fulltext=Advanced%20search#/media/File:Bucha,_Ukraine,_June_2022_(52136362580).jpg

For evidence why the Global South is hesitant to support sanctions against Russia, look no further than the West’s historic inconsistency on human rights.

How Iran Threatens South Caucasus Peace and Security

cc Kamyar Adl, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/32239176@N00/515002010

Iran’s longstanding antipathy toward Azerbaijan continues to fuel tensions in an already volatile region.

Armenia’s Geopolitics at a Crossroads

Monument to the victims of World War II in Sisian, 1975; cc Wikicommons Beko, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Monument_to_the_victims_of_World_War_II_in_Sisian_(4).jpg

Russia is proving an unreliable ally for Yerevan, creating opportunities for Western governments to make new inroads.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes Hint at New Order in South Caucasus

A Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone; cc Army.com.ua, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2.jpg

New clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh suggest that Russian influence is breaking down in the South Caucasus, with long-term implications for the region.

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