Great Power Competition News & Analysis

Sovereign Ecosystems: How Distributed Authority Is Rewiring Global Order

Generated by Google Gemini AI on April 8, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

From the Sahel to Iraq, authority is produced through negotiation among distributed actors rather than imposed by centralized institutions. US diplomacy continues to ignore these sovereign ecosystems at its own peril.

Interests and Armageddon: The Third Gulf War Shakes West Asia

cc Napishtim, Stone carved Faravahar in Persepolis., modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Persepolis_-_carved_Faravahar.JPG

Examining the great power interests and religious millenarianism fueling the US-Israel Iran war.

Canada’s China Gambit: Strategic Fantasy Meets Geopolitical Reality

cc White House, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-hosts-a-working-lunch-meeting-with-canadian-prime-minister-mark-carney/

Beijing is not a viable alternative to Washington and pretending otherwise represents a costly strategic error.

Geopolitical Realities of the C5+1 Framework

President Donald Trump hosts a dinner with leaders of C5 Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House , modified, White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-hosts-a-dinner-with-leaders-of-c5-central-asian-countries-in-the-east-room-of-the-white-house/

Intensifying geopolitical shifts in Central Asia are straining the region’s multivector diplomacy, but frameworks like C5+1 can still help strike a balance between competing great power interests.

Trump’s C5+1 Gamble: Can America Reclaim Central Asia?

cc White House, President Donald Trump hosts a dinner with leaders of C5 Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-hosts-a-dinner-with-leaders-of-c5-central-asian-countries-in-the-east-room-of-the-white-house/

The C5+1 Summit is the latest of many historical attempts by Washington to engage with Central Asia, this time driven by growing great power competition and a need to diversify critical mineral supply chains. Could this time be different than the abortive initiatives of the past?

Jakarta’s Courtesy Calls to Pyongyang: A Risk Worth Taking?

Indonesia / DPRK flag, Generated by Google Gemini AI on November 6, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Indonesia’s outreach to North Korea represents a classic middle-power play: carve out a niche as an honest broker, even if the broker occasionally makes uncomfortable allies.

Russia and the ‘Art’ of Breaking Agreements with Neighbors

U.S. President Clinton, Russian President Yeltsin, and Ukrainian President Kravchuk after signing the Trilateral Statement in Moscow on 14 January 1994. / cc U.S. government employee, photo from William J. Clinton Presidential Library / modified / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Presidents_after_signing_the_Trilateral_Statement,_Moscow,_1994.png

Moscow’s attempted annexation of Ukraine is in keeping with centuries of imperial tradition. European leaders should bear this in mind if they want to protect the integrity of international law.

From Defense to War: The Language of a Changing Global Order

Generated by Google Gemini AI on September 8, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The renaming of the US Department of Defense is not new, and it reflects a global order that is pivoting back toward the peer military conflicts of the past.

VOA/RFA Shutdown a Strategic Own Goal for US Indo-Pacific Policy

Elon Musk, SpaceX Chief Engineer, and the SpaceX team are recognized by Vice President Mike Pence inside the Vehicle Assembly Building following the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying the company's Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA’s SpaceX Demo-2 mission with NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley onboard, Saturday, May 30, 2020, at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA’s SpaceX Demo-2 mission is the first launch with astronauts of the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket to the International Space Station as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. The test flight serves as an end-to-end demonstration of SpaceX’s crew transportation system. Behnken and Hurley launched at 3:22 p.m. EDT on Saturday, May 30, from Launch Complex 39A at the Kennedy Space Center. A new era of human spaceflight is set to begin as American astronauts once again launch on an American rocket from American soil to low-Earth orbit for the first time since the conclusion of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls) / https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/President_Trump_Postlaunch_Remarks_%28NHQ202005300071%29.jpg / modified

Whether motivated by Trump’s antagonistic relationship with the press, or business considerations tied to figures like Musk, attempts to shut down RFA and VOA represent a major strategic misstep.

Can Europe Compete in Africa’s New Great Game?

Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. / cc EU2017EE Eston, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/eu2017ee/23675993798

As China and Russia gain ground, the EU is recalibrating its Africa policy—blending values with economic, migration, and security priorities in a competitive global landscape.

CBDC with Chinese Characteristics: Political Economy of the E-Yuan

cc David Dennis, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/davidden/2205322601/in/photolist-dUpVVf-4hdcq1-6QciaS-2maKPzZ-2maes5j-s6f6PR-Mx83aq-shKPof-x1GpqY-4mSRzt-putDzT-DGVz4A-Drev2f-7fLuC9-2nPs8q2-ipqEKB-r8xTs3-55qQEe-bvLvBV-dbW6UY-99n2oE-9cqNhh-dbW5yg-7BsdUR-9dvcUL-tBLFH-uzU3x-NrCHU7-2iaHW9-2aHsgRE-MwWfDp

Exploring the potential geoeconomic impacts of the world’s most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC), China’s e-yuan.

The Fall of Assad: Domestic, Regional and Systemic Shockwaves

cc Kremlin.ru, modified, Putin on trip to Syria in 2020; https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1&sort=last_edit_desc&search=assad+russia+filetype%3Abitmap&sort=last_edit_desc&advancedSearch-current={%22fields%22:{%22filetype%22:%22bitmap%22}}#/media/File:Vladimir_Putin_in_Syria_(2020-01-07)_01.jpg

The fall of Assad in Syria is a monumental geopolitical event, and one that will reverberate on the domestic, regional, and international levels. And whatever the new order that eventually emerges, it will not resemble the Levant of the past.

The Russo-Ukrainian War and Mackinder’s Heartland Thesis

cc NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, modified,

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine echoes the theories of Sir Halford J. Mackinder, who noted the critical importance of the Eurasian Heartland in global peace and conflict.

Great Power Rivalry Returns to the South Pacific

Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51199101677/in/photolist-A8GLN9-QCWGEw-KsVnBN-2m1hMbn-2iG4KNb-ivkQTs-2jMrzYr-KFbMi3-2nrwiq7-KyEWc7-NRii7v-MvcX5G-2pnWC3P-29cf4iT-2jKwg6C-25TwAHW-2jtR7Dr-28cj8C7-2muYfhy-29kHVxE-buymZG-Kt2Qvv-CPuSBc-Jpjcyw-28teX53-2nrxtZ2-2iERb42-KBBq7J-28muhKw-2nrxrA4-2n9NJWB-2nrwfw9-JXReBT-7y8AqG-28GEDG9-2nrw9Ay-27CmuAV-UNufNL-29rxApH-VkL1Lf-cJhHSJ-2n2uwJA-2nrxsXs-2nrwfiy-2nrxjBz-2nrqQYU-2nrxjpA-2nrxmov-2nrr4EW-cyRKXQ

After a reprieve in the post-Cold War era, Pacific island countries are once again figuring prominently in the geopolitics of great power rivalry.

The View from Japan’s Military: Intensifying Great Power Competition

KUMAMOTO, Japan (April 19, 2016) An MV-22B Osprey aircraft from Marine Medium Tilitrotor Squadron (VMM) 265 attached to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit departs JS Hyuga (DDH 181) in support of the Government of Japan's relief efforts following earthquakes near Kumamoto. The long-standing alliance between Japan and the U.S. allows U.S. military forces in Japan to provide rapid, integrated support to the Japan Self-Defense Force and civil relief efforts. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Gabriel B. Kotico/Released) 160419-N-AE545-640 Join the conversation: http://www.navy.mil/viewGallery.asp http://www.facebook.com/USNavy http://www.twitter.com/USNavy http://navylive.dodlive.mil http://pinterest.com https://plus.google.com

Japan’s annual China Security Report sees the zero-sum competition for and against the current international order only intensifying in the years to come.

SIPRI Annual Report: Three Takeaways from Global Defense Spending

cc Flickr Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/, PACIFIC OCEAN (Feb. 12, 2020) An unarmed Trident II (D5LE) missile launches from Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Maine (SSBN 741) off the coast of San Diego, California, Feb. 12, 2020. The test launch was part of the U.S. Navy Strategic Systems Programs’ demonstration and shakedown operation certification process. The successful launch demonstrated the readiness of the SSBN’s strategic weapon system and crew following the submarine’s engineered refueling overhaul. This launch marks 177 successful missile launches of the Trident II (D5 & D5LE) strategic weapon system. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Thomas Gooley/Released)

Geopolitical forces could mean that the global COVID-19 dip in defense spending turns out to be short-lived.

Russia’s Eurasian Union: A Bid for Hegemony?

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17740

Georgiy Voloshin examines the motivations underpinning Russia's push to establish a "Eurasian Union" in Central Asia. 

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