The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2016. It will provide analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.
Middle East
Saudi Arabia Executes Prominent Shiite Cleric
Background
The government of Saudi Arabia authorized a mass execution of 47 prisoners over the weekend. Among those executed was prominent cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a popular political figure among the country’s approx. two-million-strong Shiite minority. Al-Nimr was arrested back in 2012 amid protests in eastern Saudi Arabia that roughly coincided with ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings elsewhere. He was charged with ‘foreign meddling’ among other things, likely in reference to a diplomatic cable published by Wikileaks that describes a meeting between al-Nimr and the US authorities back in 2008. During the meeting, al-Nimr attempted to distance himself from media portrayals of him being a radical. Though al-Nimr was a fierce opponent of the ruling Sunni monarchy in Saudi Arabia, he did not encourage his followers to resort to violence. In one 2011 interview with the BBC, he praised “the roar of the word against authorities rather than weapons.”
Outlook
There are two important takeaways from al-Nimr’s execution. First, this is a highly incendiary move coming at a time of heightened sectarian tensions across the region. In itself it won’t bring immediate mass political upheaval or war; but it could trigger a wider chain of events that leads there, much like a local farmers’ protest in Dara’a tipped the dominos that ended with the Syrian civil war or Mohamed Bouazizi’s immolation brought democracy to Tunisia.
Second, this was a calculated move on the part of the Saudi authorities. There were two predictable consequences of executing al-Nimr: US anger at the Saudis for throwing fuel on the regional fire (and illuminating the duplicity of Washington’s human rights policy), and a fiery reaction from the Iranians. It’s a desire to bring about the latter that likely motivated the decision to execute al-Nimr, evident in Saudi Arabia’s eagerness to escalate the conflict and break diplomatic ties with Iran following an attack on its embassy in Tehran, even despite the arrest of 40 protestors by the Iranian authorities and President Rouhani publically branding the attackers as ‘extremists.’
This all comes at a time when the Iranian government has been on its best behavior in the hope of being rehabilitated into normal diplomatic and economic activity flows. An uptick in open hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia will reverberate in ongoing proxy conflicts, specifically Syria and Yemen, and make a diplomatic solution even less likely. It will also embolden conservative elements within Iran, many of whom were already sticking pins in their Great Satan voodoo dolls over moves by the Republican-dominated Congress to sanction Iran because of its recent missile tests.
Islamic State to Test Iraqi Government’s Hold on Ramadi
Background
In a much-needed victory for Baghdad, Iraqi government forces retook Ramadi from Islamic State in the final week of December. Last year’s fall of the predominantly Sunni city was a major setback in the government’s fight against Islamic State, and its recapture has some hoping that Fallujah won’t be far behind.
