László Csicsmann & Scott N. Romaniuk

László Csicsmann, professor, head of research centre, Corvinus Centre for Contemporary Asia Studies, Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS), Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary; and senior research fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA). Email: [email protected] Scott N. Romaniuk, research fellow, Corvinus Centre for Contemporary Asia Studies, Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS), Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary. Email: [email protected]

De-escalation Without Resolution: Iran and the Limits of American Power

Situation Reports - Jun 19, 2026

President Donald J. Trump Monitors U.S. Military Operations in Iran: Operation Epic Fury, February 28, 2026. cc White House, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Donald_J._Trump_Monitors_U.S._Military_Operations_in_Iran_Operation_Epic_Fury,_February_28,_2026_%2855121734280%29.jpg

The Iran war has revealed both the enduring military predominance of the US and the limits of that power in shaping political outcomes.

Regime in Crisis? Iran’s New Strategic Dilemmas

Situation Reports - Jul 15, 2025

cc khamenei.ir, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ali_Khamenei%27s_weekly_meetings_with_families_of_martyrs_-_Jan_2,_2018_%2813961012_1238620%29.jpg

How Iran navigates the new normal of Middle East geopolitics will shape not only its own regime survival but also the stability of an already volatile region.

A Taliban in Syria? Recognition or Marginalization for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Situation Reports - Dec 17, 2024

cc Flickr Beshr Abdulhadi, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/beshro/5856634794/in/photolist-9VwMtY-9VwPKy-9VtTRH-9VtMrF-9VtNVr-9VwvU7-9VtXtn-9VwJYY-9VtPWr-9Vwz2E-9VtTwD-9VwE3A-9VwCyL-9VtXQp-9VwPzJ-9VtXnM-9VwPsL-9Vwwwm-9VtSUX-9VtEKi-9VwP5U-9VwFnj-9VwNh5-9VwGrm-9VwEh7-2p9y48X-9VtYbc-9Vwzzw-9VtYnP-9Vwu9w-9VwF2j-9VtYEk-9VwBMU-9VwAPh-9VwG6o-9VtNz4-9Vwtbm-2pbXQGV-br4JkY-aeGY97-NHbcFM-LS62E7-2ftSYUV-d86Jqo-dhSnoD-2hKKJ9k-nb9VjW-d9CBTC-rxvhGD-fLL6B6

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) defies any easy comparison to moderate or radical examples of Islamist groups, further complicating the highly consequential matter of future sanction relief.