Islomkhon Gafarov

Russia’s Taliban Recognition Signals Potential Domino Effect

Situation Reports - Jul 11, 2025

A Taliban commander in 2002; cc Callum Darragh, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/191009661@N02/52366588521

Russia’s Taliban recognition could be the start of a trend; however, Afghanistan’s (partial) reintegration into the diplomatic mainstream will add a new layer of complexity to Central Asian geopolitics.

Minerals for Recognition: The Taliban’s Shadow Diplomacy

Situation Reports - Jun 06, 2025

The Chinese state owned mining company MCC have built a camp at Mes Ainak, 35km south of Kabul, while archeologists are racing to excavate a series of ancient Buddhist monasteries before the bulldozers roll in. The Afghan government is desperate for the copper royalites, once mining starts, but officials familiar with the deal said the Chinise, having secured the rights to the deposit, appear to be in no hurry to start exploiting it. They are supposed to build a railway and a power station, but have not started either. / cc Jerome Starkey, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeromestarkey/6349904680

The Taliban leadership is seeking to leverage Afghanistan’s considerable mineral wealth in a comprehensive effort to gain wider diplomatic recognition for the regime.