Antonio Graceffo

Undersea Cables Latest Target of China’s Hybrid Warfare Strategy

cc COMSEVENTHFLT, modified, WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN (April 2, 2015) - Sailors assigned to the submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS 40) man the rails as they pass Mount Suribachi following a wreath-laying ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima. The ceremony honored those who fought in the battle and included personal testimony from Sailors who had family fight in the battle, laying of a wreath, a 21-gun salute and the playing of taps. Frank Cable, forward deployed to the island of Guam, conducts maintenance and support of submarines and surface vessels deployed in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility and is currently on a scheduled underway period. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Greg House)

The severing of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea and off the coast of Taiwan echo the ongoing evolution in the hybrid warfare strategy of China, a likely culprit behind the sabotage.

Implications of the Fall of Myanmar’s Western Command

Footage of Arakan Army recruits training in 2024; cc VOA, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=arakan%20army&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Arakan_Army_Training.jpg

The fall of the Tatmadaw’s Western Command marks a collapse of state control across Rakhine State, but governance challenges loom for the victorious Arakan Army.

Beijing’s Malacca Dilemma: Chief Hurdle in a Taiwan Invasion

STRAIT OF MALACCA (Jan. 22, 2011) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is underway in the Strait of Malacca. Carl Vinson and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17 are on a deployment to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class James R. Evans/Released)

Though Beijing has taken several steps to alleviate its ‘Malacca Dilemma,’ China remains vulnerable as ever to a naval blockade in a hypothetical conflict with the US Navy, at least in the short-term.

Breeding Grounds of Extremism: How Syria Refugee Camps Fuel Radicalization

cc Y. Boechat (VOA), modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VOA_in_Al-Hol_Camp,_Syria,_17_October_2019.jpg

There is a risk of history repeating itself as Syria refugee camps incubate a new generation of potential recruits for Islamic State and other extremist outfits.

Boon or Bust? Regional Kurds After the Fall of Assad

cc Kurdishstruggle, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/kurdishstruggle/36930390486/in/photolist-YgpUss-HjJvTh-21SWnxC-21VwnDw-249h9v3-RJJLAy-ZNERnd-RHzuHt-KXyqkY-23yDuLy-ZFj4Ha-ZNEh7W-23yDxNL-22neiVr-RJJMoq-YAtinK-QkfwnZ-22KgAqL-REVcBU-21Qv8cX-E1FNdr-ZWotih-21P8D7m-ZinfoV-Nk4Nsh-MN2igQ-XZjdRU-MDP9Xe-KKnTPk-LwGqnC-23HUzXR-Zu2KSD-PKDHFC-P2EXxB-DNnULf-P7ij4W-Ma6JUQ-RJJKW7-LiBpKd-Jg7Pap-JjJZiW-28LrJBG-HmxJ6W-LS62E7-HPkqga-KU5mpg-MQ7EXW-LLy1Xm-MMQ7Hr-LfRoXj

Examining the political contexts and linkages between Kurdish movements in Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey – all of which will be impacted by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Myanmar Civil War Casts Shadow over China’s CMEC Corridor

cc calflier001, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:MYANMAR_RAILWAYS_LOCO_HAULED_TRAIN_AT_YANGON_STATION_MYANMAR_JAN_2013_%288554822776%29.jpg

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) was supposed to provide economic growth while alleviating one of China’s overriding strategic concerns, but the project has never truly gotten off the ground.

Geopolitics Unfreezes the Syrian Civil War

A man waves the old Syrian flag in front of the former police st, cc Flickr Freedom House, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

The geopolitical context of 2011 is starkly different from that of today, perhaps leading to a desire on the part of some players to revisit the outcome of the Syrian civil war.

Trump and the Art of the Ukraine Peace Deal

cc Gage Skidmore, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/53952718151/in/photolist-2qcBMqt-2qcxcAi-2qcE7Ge-2qcD6dC-2qcD6xk-2qcDtbS-2qcDt5z-2qcD66P-2qcD6Aw-2qcE7P8-2qcxcKg-2qcDtBG-2qcE7Ng-2qcE7Hm-2qcE7gQ-2qcxd66-2qcDtBM-2qcE7ea-2qcBMs2-2qcDtCd-2qcE7Gj-2qcE7N1-2qcxd8a-2qcD6rZ-2qcxd7U-2qcD6b8-2qcxcA3-2qcxd7y-2qcxd5V-2qcE7Lc-2qcxd2D-2qcDtBg-2qcxd2y-2qcxcCh-2qcE7NS-2qcE7Jo-2qcD67q-2qcD69e-2qcDt3F-2qcBM4X-2qcDtdk-2qcxcFy-2qcxcDz-2qcD5Xs-2qcE7pW-2qcDtdF-2qcD67A-2ptYuSq-2ptYuRP-2ptT9m4

Donald Trump’s personality and negotiating style suggests that some of the worst-case scenarios in a Ukraine peace deal are overblown.

China’s Wagner? Beijing Establishes Private Security Company in Myanmar

cc Vadim Savitsky, mil.ru; Min Aung Hlaing, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Min_Aung_Hlaing_in_June_2017.jpg

Beijing is taking a more active role in the Myanmar civil war by deploying a private security company to protect Chinese investments in the country.

China Threat Looms Ever Larger in US Policy Establishment

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley answer questions during a press conference at NATO headquarters, Brussels, Belgium, Feb. 14, 2023. Austin hosted the ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that brought together 54 countries for continuing discussions on support to Ukraine in its war with Russia. (DoD photo by Chad J. McNeeley)

Mounting US-China tensions are increasingly being reflected in threat assessments across the US policy establishment.

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