FORECAST
The ‘East Asian Community Project’ that emerged from a recent ASEAN summit in Thailand is evidence of growing regionalism in the wake of American decline. Any real Asian EU-style bloc however will be a long time coming.
The Japanese proposal envisions an economic bloc that casts a wide net to include: ASEAN members, Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and possibly even the United States. Although such a grouping would engender a staggering amount of global economic clout, logistical difficulties and the burden of history that exists between some of the proposed member states will make for an extremely slow pace of political and economic integration.
Principal on the list of likely impediments is the mutual suspicion that pervades the region. While American decline is affording China space to expand its influence, other key players will be unwilling to give China carte blanche to dominate the region. Thus, the negotiating process will be bogged down by Chinese attempts to maximize their influence within the new economic bloc, as well as other members’ attempts to counter that influence. The obvious counterweight would be the inclusion of the United States, but to do so would risk harming the prospects for deeper regionalism, a process that Washington will be trying its best to de-rail.
There are several political and historical disputes that will impede East Asian regional integration. The expansion of continues to cause other states to respond in kind, and Beijing and New Delhi are currently locked in a growing naval arms race. Australia has also been bolstering its defense capabilities, fueling fears of a wider regional military buildup.
Japan’s relationship with South Korea and China is still afflicted by the memory of past Japanese atrocities. Unlike the case of post-WWII Franco-German rapprochement, Asia’s wounds remain open to this day. The CCP doesn’t shirk away from stressing Japanese atrocities to domestic audiences as a way to legitimize itself as savior of the Chinese nation. As a result, hatred has been passed down to a new generation and anti-Japanese protests in Chinese cities are not unheard of.
It is unlikely that the CCP would relinquish national monetary control to an economic bloc and thus deprive itself of the tools necessary to ensure economic growth, another pillar of CCP legitimacy. Given this consideration and China’s conventionally state-centric approach to international relations, it’s possible that China’s presence could end up as a diluting force. Beijing may champion a regional free-trade agreement, but stop short at accepting a coordinated regional monetary policy.
To provide some context, European regionalism within the European Coal & Steel Community was driven by a strong commitment from Germany and France, who acted as shepherds for the original bloc of six countries. The Euro entered into circulation roughly 50 years later in 2002. The East Asian Community Project will need to contend with a much larger initial membership and lacks the sobering effect that World War II had on European regionalism. It remains to be seen what wins out – the economic imperatives of an increasingly region-centric world order or centuries of mistrust between East Asian countries. Either way, an EU-style Asian economic bloc will be decades in the making.
SUMMARY OF EVENTS: October 19 – 26, 2009
WORLD
The euro broke through $1.50 against the dollar for the first time in 14 months Wednesday as a recovering stock market further sapped the U.S. currency’s appeal as a safe-haven investment.
NORTH AMERICA
Canada
The splits inside NATO over the Afghan war have turned the alliance into a rotting corpse that will be virtually impossible to revive, says the former head of Canada’s armed forces.
United States
A top American scientist who once worked for the Pentagon and the U.S. space agency NASA was arrested Monday and charged with attempted spying for Israel, the Department of Justice said.
The United States will not establish military bases in Georgia but will help the country to modernize its defense system and integrate into NATO, a senior U.S. defense official said on Tuesday.
Responding to the growing furor over the paychecks of executives at companies that received billions of dollars in the government’s financial rescue, the Obama administration will order the companies that received the most aid to deeply slash the compensation to their highest paid executives, an official involved in the decision said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Barack Obama said on Wednesday he could reach a decision on his new war strategy for Afghanistan before the outcome of an Afghan election run-off on November 7.
U.S. law enforcement agencies arrested 303 people in 19 states over the past two days in the largest strike against a major Mexican drug trafficking cartel in the United States, officials said on Thursday.
Richard Goldstone, the jurist who authored a UN report accusing Israel of war crimes and crimes against humanity during its war on Gaza, has challenged the U.S. to justify its claims that his findings are flawed and biased.
The U.S. military is providing intelligence and surveillance video from unmanned aircraft to the Pakistani army to assist in its week-old offensive in South Waziristan, marking the deepest American involvement yet in a Pakistani military campaign, officials said Friday.
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN
Honduras
Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya pulled out of talks with the country’s post-coup de facto leaders on Friday, throwing efforts to resolve a months-long political crisis back to square one.
SOUTH AMERICA
Leftist Latin American leaders have agreed on using a new intra- regional trading currency, dubbed as Sucre, instead of the U.S. dollar.
WESTERN EUROPE
Britain
The British government has denied that a programme for tackling religious extremism is used by its security agencies to spy on Muslim communities.
EASTERN EUROPE
Lithuania
Lithuania must properly investigate allegations it hosted a secret CIA prison for al Qaeda and, if true, take responsibility for its actions, the president said on Tuesday.
Poland
Poland is ready to take part in a reconfigured U.S. missile defense system, the Polish prime minister said on Wednesday.
Russia
Russia on Thursday said it would continue military cooperation with Iran amid widespread unease in the West over Moscow’s controversial contract to sell advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Tehran.
Countries that do not threaten Russia have no reason to fear its new military doctrine, the Russian foreign minister said on Friday.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran
Iran vowed retaliation Monday after accusing Pakistan, the U.S. and Britain of aiding Sunni militants who stunned the Islamic regime with a suicide bombing that killed top Revolutionary Guard commanders and dozens of others.
Talks between Iran and world powers on a deal to allay concerns about Tehran’s nuclear drive started well on Monday, the U.N. atomic agency chief said, despite Iran’s reported refusal to negotiate with France.
Iran turned up the heat on Pakistan on Tuesday, saying the group accused of carrying out a suicide bombing that killed top commanders of the elite Revolutionary Guards is based on its territory.
Iran has accepted a draft agreement that calls for some uranium produced in Iran to be sent abroad for further enrichment, an Iranian diplomat said Wednesday.
Iran has denied newspaper reports that its officials held secret talks recently with their Israeli counterparts to explore the possibility of declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone.
Iran put off until next week a formal response to a U.N.-backed plan to ship much of its uranium to Russia for enrichment, the country’s nuclear envoy said Friday.
Israel
Israel is close to reaching a deal with the United States that will accommodate the so-called “natural growth” of settlements in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories, the Israeli ambassador to Washington said Tuesday.
The Israeli foreign minister has urged the UN Secretary General to prevent both the General Assembly and the Security Council from considering a report on Israeli and Palestinian war crimes in the Gaza Strip.
EAST ASIA
China
Somali pirates hijacked a Chinese bulk carrier on Monday northeast of the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean, as the marauding sea bandits hunted their prey ever further from base to wrong-foot naval patrols.
Japan
Tokyo is resisting Washington’s pressure for accepting a military agreement between the two nations over the presence of US forces in the Asian country.
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan
Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, is under pressure to accept a runoff vote after a UN-backed election watchdog recommended that nearly a third of ballots apparently cast in his favour be scrapped, diplomatic sources said Monday.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai bowed to Western pressure Tuesday, agreeing to take part in a presidential runoff vote in two weeks.
Officials involved in flawed Afghan elections are being removed ahead of next month’s run-off, the UN has said.
NATO nations acknowledged Friday that their operation in Afghanistan is not working and agreed they need a new approach to seize the initiative from the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and their backers.
India
India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao on Saturday, hoping to douse an escalating verbal duel between the Asian giants centered around their decades-old border dispute.
Pakistan
Pakistan’s army, in the midst of a major new offensive against Taliban militants, has struck deals to keep two powerful, anti-U.S. tribal chiefs from joining the battle against the government, officials said Monday.
Twin suicide blasts tore through a university campus in Pakistan’s capital Tuesday, killing up to five people as the military pursued a major anti-Taliban offensive in the lawless northwest.
Pakistan kept millions of pupils at home on Wednesday as it shut all schools and colleges after a suicide attack at a university, as the army became bogged down in an assault against the Taliban.
Suspected Taliban militants shot and killed a Pakistani army brigadier and his driver in the capital on Thursday as the military continued a major offensive against the insurgents in their strongholds near the Afghan border.
Sri Lanka
The Sri Lankan government Thursday angrily rejected a U.S. state department report containing allegations of human rights abuses in the final days of the country’s civil war, saying the document would fan further conflict.
AFRICA
Niger
West Africa’s regional bloc suspended Niger on Tuesday in protest against what it said were flawed parliamentary elections being held there.
Somalia
Mortars fired by Islamic militants slammed into Somalia’s airport as the president was boarding a plane Thursday, sparking battles that killed at least 24 people when return fire hit residential areas and a market, officials said.
Somalia’s al-Shabab fighters have said they will attack the capitals of Burundi and Uganda in revenge for rocket attacks by peacekeepers from the two countries.
Zachary Fillingham is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com
