Following voter approval in a referendum held earlier this month, Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has ramped up rhetoric and support for annexation of the resource-rich Essequibo region in neighboring Guyana. Recent developments have escalated the long-standing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, bringing the prospects of a military conflict into the spotlight. Maduro’s actions, reminiscent of Russia’s approach in Ukraine, have centered around intensifying claims over Guyana’s resource-rich Essequibo region. The situation raises critical questions about the two nations’ military capabilities, Maduro’s decision-making process, and the potential involvement of international powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom in resolving the dispute.

The Military Dimension: Guyana and Venezuela

Guyana’s military, the Guyana Defence Force (GDF), is modest, with approximately 3,400 active-duty personnel. Its capabilities are primarily geared towards internal security, counter-narcotics, and border patrol, with limited resources for interstate conflict. Unsurprisingly, the GDF’s equipment stock is largely outdated, featuring Cold War-era small arms and a few armored vehicles for internal security purposes. Since gaining independence from Britain, the GDF’s limited operational experience has been limited to civil conflicts and brief border skirmishes with Suriname.