The ‘East Asian Community Project’ that emerged from a recent ASEAN summit in Thailand is evidence of growing regionalism in the wake of American decline. Any real Asian EU-style bloc however will be a long time coming.

The Japanese proposal envisions an economic bloc that casts a wide net to include: ASEAN members, Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and possibly even the United States. Although such a grouping would engender a staggering amount of global economic clout, logistical difficulties and the burden of history that exists between some of the proposed member states will make for an extremely slow pace of political and economic integration.

Principal on the list of likely impediments is the mutual suspicion that pervades the region. While American decline is affording China space to expand its influence, other key players will be unwilling to give China carte blanche to dominate the region.  Thus, the negotiating process will be bogged down by Chinese attempts to maximize their influence within the new economic bloc, as well as other members’ attempts to counter that influence. The obvious counterweight would be the inclusion of the United States, but to do so would risk harming the prospects for deeper regionalism, a process that Washington will be trying its best to de-rail.