The Quad Alliance (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) News & Analysis

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War Deal, DRC Ebola Outbreak, Quad Revived)

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Examining the latest diplomatic efforts to hammer out a framework deal in the Iran war, signs that the Ebola outbreak in central Africa is worse than the data reflects, and the tentative return of the Quad as a player in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.

Beyond Tariffs: Strategic Realignment in US-India Relations

cc White House, modified, President Donald J. Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, joined by members of their delegations, participate in a bilateral meeting Tuesday, September 24, 2019, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Modi_and_Trump_at_UN_HQ.jpg

The ongoing rift in US-India relations has shed light on some longstanding contradictions in the relationship, and while the two sides may still yet find common ground, the road to resolution will surely be a rocky one.

From QUAD to Squad: Informal Alliances in the Indo-Pacific

170623-N-ZW825-577 SUBIC BAY, Republic of Philippines (June 23, 2017) Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Sterett (DDG 104) departs Subic Bay, Republic of Philippines at the conclusion of a scheduled port visit. Sterett is part of the Sterett-Dewey Surface Action Group and is the third deploying group operating under the command and control construct called 3rd Fleet Forward. U.S. 3rd Fleet operating forward offers additional options to the Pacific Fleet commander by leveraging the capabilities of 3rd and 7th Fleets. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Byron C. Linder/Released) - cc Flickr Naval Surface Warriors, modified - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

The newly-established informal Squad alliance hints at a new security concept that is now crystallizing in the Indo-Pacific.

Modi’s US Visit Illustrates Growing Complexities of the Indo-Pacific

cc Nandita Bose and Patricia Zengerle (23rd June, 2023) - The White House and Reuters. modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=modi%20biden&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Narendra_Modi_at_White_House_state_dinner_2023.jpg

Modi’s US state visit serves as a stark reminder of the intricate web of dependencies India must deftly negotiate as it balances relations between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.

The “Indo-Pacificization” of Asia: Implications for the Regional Order

cc Presidential Press and Information Office, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Prime_Minister_of_India_Narendra_Modi_and_President_of_China_Xi_Jinping_before_the_beginning_of_the_2017_BRICS_Leaders%27_meeting.jpg

Tracking the emergence of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct, a vast super-region that has now come to dominate geopolitical discourse.

India, Australia, and the Indo-Pacific Imperative

cc Government of India, modified, The Prime Minister of Australia Hon Anthony Albanese on his visit to #India, embarked the indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant at Mumbai. He was received onboard by Adm R Hari Kumar CNS with a Guard of Honour. https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=Albanese+Vikrant&title=Special:Search&profile=advanced&fulltext=1&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Prime_Minister_of_Australia_Anthony_Albanese_embarked_the_indigenous_aircraft_carrier_INS_Vikrant.jpg

An increasingly aggressive China is solidifying bilateral relations between New Delhi and Canberra.

Timeline: Freeze (and Thaw?) in China-Australia Relations

Prime Minister and Andrew Robb signing the Free Trade Agreement with Chinese President Xi and Minister for Commerce Gao Hucheng., 2014, cc Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website – www.dfat.gov.au, modified 0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Abbott_and_Robb_signing_the_Free_Trade_Agreement_with_Chinese_President_Xi_and_Minister_for_Commerce_Gao_Hucheng_November_2014.jpg

Chronicling the events leading up to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

Is It Time for India to Deepen Taiwan Ties?

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With regional tensions rising and fellow Quad members Japan and the United States asserting their steadfast support for Taiwan, is it now time for India to deepen its ties with Taiwan?

Japan: An Empire Reawakened?

(Color)  Surrender of Japan, Tokyo Bay, 2 September 1945

Growing multipolarity in the international system raises some interesting questions for Japanese foreign policy going forward. Is Tokyo about to step out of Washington’s shadow?

AUKUS and France as an Indo-Pacific Power

cc Flickr Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/usnavy/50733058737/in/photolist-2ki7bRg-2hHoSPF-8KuY6T-EpGbCA-KyEWc7-JG4Xn4-2gnGJiZ-2gEGZee-KFbMo3-2kLKZE9-2gnH86i-Hho9QU-89G3cm-cVJxK-89CTF6-UKvJm2-egpmWh-2cU1XGT-2kRN95N-89GkRY-SBNYgf-Kbadbo-2g1UxLe-89Ga9C-Kt2Qvv-89D5HH-2gvCKN7-89Gjkw-8NoLyx-2kNmiTa-28teX53-4CNgZu-KbadrU-KdvF62-KdvFwc-2kDksE9-241EHKj-KdvFDX-JTCVNN-RzQsD6-9HE7DC-2kThK8E-qBoDJZ-f7Mz4y-6b6ku9-JoaU2d-2tj2vm-2kDgjuF-8NoJ26-nqL6xU

The AUKUS alliance has chipped away at the pillars holding up French power projection in the Indo-Pacific.

Japan’s Indian Ocean Dilemma

Malabar Exercises 2020, cc Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/usnavy/50613870887/in/photolist-2k7zjsk-64j3Cd-64eNpD-59bALQ-64eN3T-ARNyiP-oxwxXM-oxLFLA-ZmaDKh-54eHnK-ogiyf1-2kndKjW-ogiRNr-ozyekx-8TtmWm-2iKkxyx-8Ttmv5-8TtkUW-2iGTW4h-54iWDw-29M8fHk-54eHe8-64eNet-21wpDHB-Dj2ngQ-2jHvyG3-2jHqyQ9-2mcjEbg-2mYqAz2-2josuq2-54iWGy-29Saho6-54iX3L-ogjwr6-26tuPCJ-nHWEH3-bAYXZ2-nrtY6z-2iF7NXU-dwjRiP-dwqu4Q-2mg8VEo-54iWZy-dwjR4V-bo57hS-2m8h8vn-2iKjdVr-BG8cUx-ekHaji-bo56XC

New security imperatives are giving rise to new policy dilemmas for Japan’s government.

Challenges Beyond the Indo-Pacific Test the Limits of the Quad

140727-N-TU910-014 EAST CHINA SEA (July 27, 2014) ) Ships assigned to Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Indian Navy, and U.S. Navy steam alongside Ticonderoga-class guided-missile destroyer USS Shiloh (CG 67) during Malabar 2014. Malabar 2014 is a U.S. Navy, Indian Navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force trilateral naval field training exercise aimed to improve our collective maritime relationship and increase understanding in multinational operations. (U.S. Navy photo released by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Abby Rader/Released), cc Naval Surface Warriors Flickr, modified

Recent policy disclosures reflect an attempt by the Biden administration to bridge the divergent interests of Washington’s Pacific- and Atlantic-based allies. Success won’t come easy.

This Is Not the Joe Biden Europe Was Hoping For

cc madison.beer, flickr, public domain, https://flickr.com/photos/192921173@N03/51241878073/in/photolist-2m5524v-2m59oas-2m5bYFZ-2m59oJo-2m53Ytk-2m5homt-2m5kpfv-2m5j5JD-2m56tPw-2m58iUC-2m5fTxY-2m5ho3c-2m53Zce-2m4ZkPR-2m5hnZ1-2m59oeF-2m56tWR-2m551Am-2m551So-2m58jcS-2m5fxGr-2m4Zkgg-2m4ZknU-2m57UWf-2m59nXt-2m5hmoZ-2m59o2M-2m56tSh-2m57UKd-2m53ZeP-2m5kABJ-2m5uhh4-2m5daz6-2m53YEn-2m4ZkRp-2m5bayj-2m4ZkQs-2m5fyLA-2m57Us4-2m5e469-2m54FEq-2m59oh6-2m4ZkZW-2m53ZkL-2m53YBg-2m57UZS-2m5htda-2m5mWJv-2m5e4be-2m5527r

The AUKUS saga reflects a different set of strategic priorities in Washington from what many European leaders were expecting.

Is the Australia-UK-USA Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS) a Gamechanger?

Pictured is HMS Ambush returning to HMNB Clyde in Scotland., cc Flickr Defence Images, https://flickr.com/photos/defenceimages/9522632603/in/photolist-fvtYUK-2jvDiab-fmb3EE-2ki7bRg-2hLXvyq-2kYn1ir-vWMtJQ-2krQA2g-Xda2ms-2gVEfRr-2dvRio9-2bxdsxh-2kZSKx7-2gnGJiZ-i1Cji-2grCbXH-divhFt-ek2ELw-2grCcix-2gnH86i-8mkqff-fmb3Dj-7CPPUd-hKchQ-2gUoQq4-dkxhD8-divhBV-2iukW5U-6sw9G1-5yypmV-dF5FSj-dEZgsr-dF5FPJ-SWdZuE-evC8Ec-hJEvb4-HHdBMr-divgvQ-divhJn-fpm5Po-divgzj-6z8nQp-ijchoS-wey27c-fp6Q3Z-rDjWBr-D3FtQV-2jddQbZ-2jx7D5g-2m3g9Mk

The AUKUS pact is notable in its shift from style to substance in US-led efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

Does Afghanistan Present a New Opportunity for the Quad?

cc Flickr The White House, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/51145155728

If the Quad wants to operationalize its multilateralism in a way that doesn’t directly antagonize China, then Afghanistan would be a good place to start.

The Quad Comes of Age?

English: President Biden and Vice President Harris Meet Virtually with their Counterparts in the Quad; Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan, source: Video; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Biden_and_Vice_President_Harris_Meet_Virtually_with_their_Counterparts_in_the_Quad.webm

Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit.

Global Forecast (3-7-2021)

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Examining the issues and hotspots that will be making headlines in the week ahead.

Will the Quad Give Way to the Quint?

BAY OF BENGAL (July 17, 2017) Ships from the Indian Navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the U.S. Navy sail in formation, July 17, 2017, in the Bay of Bengal as part of Exercise Malabar 2017. Malabar 2017 is the latest in a continuing series of exercises between the Indian Navy, JMSDF and U.S. Navy that has grown in scope and complexity over the years to address the variety of shared threats to maritime security in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Cole Schroeder), cc Flickr ermaleksandr, modified, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/

If the ties binding the Quad together are a shared fear of China’s growing power in the region, then there’s no reason to believe it won’t become the Quint some day.

South Korea Develops Aircraft Carrier in Military Overhaul

In pursuing a total military overhaul and an aircraft carrier program, President Moon Jae-in is ensuring that South Korea is prepared for the geopolitical uncertainties that lie ahead.

Trump Unveils a New Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific

Ships from the Royal Australian Navy, Indian navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the United States Navy participate in Malabar 2020., cc Flickr Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnavy/50613870887/in/photolist-2k7zjsk-2k8s7Fo-2k89r7Y-CwWaMh-VAfibR-WRGbUK-Vy11vY-VABjDi-Vy12ij-Vy11WY-VxZZwo-WLxHNh-Vy115Y-YyiLr5-2dTgKFL-ZKcBLA-ZMX6cZ-ZJdAZ9-FRntMV-W35JeS-WH1K2J-WEc1eM-WEbZ9k-XiQ3Wi-L1sqBu-L1sqks-L1sqSE-2dTg7Xf-2dAocUi-2dThcf1-2eZe3Pn-5DFc39-2853ShY-Vsm6Ad-VsYesT-VzHAWo-WASr2E-Wt8vjV-VsYdyD-WgyQ6J-WASqmG-W5saTj-WgyNP5-WgyP4y-WNhu1L-WJyqWR-WgyQHA-WgyPsu-W7bPss-2853RBu

But was it really secret before its sudden declassification?

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