Amid grinding attrition and freezing weather in the Ukraine war, the geopolitical plot continues to thicken in Belarus.

The state has figured prominently in the drama of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though not necessarily in the ways that Vladimir Putin might have hoped. Belarusian territory was used to launch the ill-fated northern front meant to capture Kyiv in the early days of the war; it also has continued to house Russian planes and missiles used in strikes against Ukraine. Finally, there have been periodic reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside both Russian and Ukrainian forces.