The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is an ambitious international agreement aiming to completely eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world. Signed in July 2017 under a UN framework, it will come into force in January 2021, 90 days after the recent deposition of the 50^th instrument of ratification. This has been celebrated by supporters as a great step toward total nuclear disarmament, to the point of declaring that “nuclear weapons are banned.” But a closer look at the countries which have – and most importantly which have not – ratified the TPNW reveals that, for the time being, the treaty’s real impact will be very limited, if not completely absent.

Background

The text of the Treaty contains provisions governing the elimination of nuclear weapons. It emerges that, while being ambitious in terms of goals and comprehensive with regard to the topics it covers, the agreement is also relatively simple. To summarize, it states that the parties (states who have signed and ratified the Treaty) must not possess nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; a specification which extends its coverage to radiological (‘dirty’) bombs that are loaded with radioactive material to be dispersed in the explosion’s area. Parties are forbidden to develop as well as seek or provide assistance to obtain nuclear armaments. It also prohibits member states from hosting nuclear weapons on their territory and threatening the use of nuclear/radiological warheads. Parties commit to release a declaration on their previous or current activities related to the development or stockpile of nuclear weapons. In terms of supervision mechanisms, the TPNW distinguishes between states who did not possess nuclear weapons at the time it was signed and those who did. The former must keep their obligations under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or conclude an agreement with it if not already in place. The latter, after eliminating all their nuclear warheads and related facilities, must cooperate with international authorities and conclude an agreement with IAEA on verification practices. Those states hosting nuclear assets of other countries are obliged to remove them from their territory. State parties must designate an international authority to verify the complete renunciation of nuclear weapons and the exclusive use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. The Treaty also contains measures that oblige participants to provide assistance to populations who have been affected by nuclear weapons tests or use, as well as provisions on environmental remediation. Finally, it outlines the forms of cooperation between parties and the technical aspects governing its functioning and implementation (associated costs, ratification, entry into force, withdrawal, duration, etc.)

End of Nuclear Weapons?

The upcoming entry into force of the Treaty has been hailed by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the advocacy group who spearheaded the initiative that garnered it a Nobel Prize for Peace in 2017. ICAN’s Executive Director Beatrice Fihn defined the event as “a new chapter for nuclear disarmament” and went as far as declaring that “nuclear weapons are banned.” However, at the current stage, such a statement overlooks the reality of the situation.

Of the states that have ratified or signed the TPWN, the large majority are Latin American, African, and Southeast Asian countries that have never sought nuclear weapons. A good share of them are micronations in the Pacific or the Caribbean. The positive note in this is that it reaffirms the will of some countries who had once tried to develop a nuclear arsenal (such as Brazil or South Africa) or who found themselves in their possession (like Kazakhstan) to renounce any nuclear ambition.

But it’s far more telling to scan the list of countries that haven’t signed the Treaty.