Rene Tebel

Ukrainian Winter: More Setbacks for Russia?

cc Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27773607903

Shifts in the weather will present tactical challenges for both sides, but the ‘wet cold’ is unlikely to decisively void Ukraine’s advantages nor reverse Russia’s operational difficulties.

Russia’s Syrian Strategy Finds a Repeat in Ukraine

cc Kyivcity.gov.ua, modified, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:%D0%96%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%83_%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%94%D0%B2%D1%96_(%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BB._%D0%9A%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%B8%D1%86%D1%8F)_%D0%BF%D1%96%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%8F_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%96%D0%BB%D1%83.jpg

That strategy being: to bite, to crush, and then to move on.

Ukraine War: Lessons Learned One Month On

cc Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=ukraine%20war&fulltext=Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&title=Special:Search&advanced=1&fulltext=Advanced%20search#/media/File:Anti-terrorist_operation_in_eastern_Ukraine_(War_Ukraine)_(27773607903).jpg

The war in Ukraine has now lasted one month. Even though a thick fog of propaganda spreads over the events, several lessons can be gleaned from the course of the battle so far.

Syria Facing a Fourth Turkish Invasion?

cc Kurdishstruggle, Flickr, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/kurdishstruggle/37857203615/in/photolist-ZFj4Ha-FLXpoy-E1FNdr-23HUzaP-A3gDCA-A5seeR-H8f8z9-21P8D7m-GeHzvC-EVSBbc-C7Q816-AAgxNh-CC6HMU-AAgnTw-CXhWiG-D3zzZp-23Sf5Z3-BAWSiA-APU9tC-AmAXqC-22pqti4-EVSDcX-E3ZbAv-AXmxW8-FZzz64-zSoYEQ-JPUbHR-AR5WqK-JJgVhq-Ar66Pw-22pqsBV-NoiDrK-22pqt7c-D4SC3U-D5dhXp-Bvua1G-22pqsJD-AGPmpq-AVbRgv-J9P3XR-BzS1Wb-H1qC2J-FGXrHd-FoXrpM-CYxN7J-ApNrXH-B1xJrT-AuMvuF-Ac5yTT-Bdpypg

Signals abound that Turkey is preparing to launch another military operation in Syria, potentially with the objective of linking its two enclaves in the country.

The Afghan Taliban Tries Moderation

U.S. Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force - Crisis Response - Central Command, provide assistance during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, Aug. 20. U.S. service members are assisting the Department of State with an orderly drawdown of designated personnel in Afghanistan. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Nicholas Guevara), modified, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_fall_of_Kabul_(2021)#/media/File:August_20_2021_Evacuation_at_Hamid_Karzai_International_Airport.jpg

Various geopolitical pressures are set to produce a more moderate Taliban regime in the short-term – but sharia remains a red line.

Perim and Socotra: Can Yemen Maintain Its Territorial Integrity?


Mysterious construction activity suggests that foreign patrons are establishing military facilities on Yemeni territory, whether their erstwhile allies like it or not.

Virtue Out of Necessity: Turkey to Roll Out World’s First Drone Carrier

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone, cc 4.0 Army.com.ua, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2.jpg

In building the world’s first drone carrier, Ankara is making the most out of its exclusion from the F-35 program. But the plan isn’t perfect.

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