Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Israel’s Iran Strike: A New Power Dynamic in the Middle East

Situation Reports - Oct 28, 2024

cc US Embassy Tel Aviv, modified, https://ja.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%82%A4%E3%83%AB:Squadron_115_of_Israel_Air_Force_281.jpg

With Israeli strikes now landing inside Iran, Tehran faces a dilemma in managing a conflict that has historically been fought via indirect means.

Risk of Iran Nuclear Outbreak Grows as Conventional Deterrence Wanes

Opinion - Oct 09, 2024

Fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah carried out a training exercise in Aaramta village in the Jezzine District, southern Lebanon, on Sunday, May 21, 2023. The show of force came ahead of “Liberation Day,” the annual celebration of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon on May 25, 2000, and in the wake of a recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Gaza Strip. Tansim news, modified, https://he.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%A7%D7%95%D7%91%D7%A5:2023_Hezbollah_drill_in_Aaramta_01.jpg

Two pillars of Iran’s conventional deterrence have been severely eroded in short order. Will the regime turn to nuclear weapons in an attempt to restore the regional balance of power?