Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

The Middle Corridor: A Route Born of the New Eurasian Geopolitics

Baku port, cc Asif Masimov , modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Port_of_Baku_in_2022.jpg

The Middle Corridor has risen to prominence as global supply chains adapt to new geopolitical realities. Yet challenges remain before the corridor can fully supplant traditional Eurasian routes.

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: What It Means and What Comes Next

cc IDF Spokesperson's Unit, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SoI-War_24-02-26_IDF_02-19.jpg

Without a clear, internationally backed strategy for Gaza’s future, the ceasefire may simply be a temporary pause before the next round of conflict.

Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive: Symbolic Gains, Strategic Costs?

cc Mil.gov.ua, modified, A soldier of the 80th Separate Galician Air Assault Brigade told how they managed to capture an advanced Russian T-90M Proryv tank in the Kursk region., https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_80th_Air_Assault_Brigade_captured_a_T-90M_Proryv_tank_in_the_Kursk_region.jpg

The initial success of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive provided a morale boost by demonstrating that Kyiv can challenge Russia on its own turf. Yet the long-term geopolitical value is more complicated.

Australia Ramps Up Strategic Engagement in the Pacific

cc US Navy, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HMAS_Darwin_F-04.jpg / Persian Gulf (Mar. 15, 2005) — The Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Darwin (FFG 04) underway in the waters of the Persian Gulf alongside the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75). Darwin is a long-range escort with roles including area air defense, anti-submarine warfare, surveillance, reconnaissance and interdiction. She can counter simultaneous threats from the air, surface and sub-surface. The Truman Carrier Strike Group is on a regularly scheduled deployment in support of the Global War on Terrorism.

Australia’s recent agreements with Papua New Guinea, Nauru, and the Solomon Islands mark a critical step in its efforts to maintain leadership and influence in the Pacific.

Trump’s Panama Canal Gambit: Sovereignty Meets Geopolitics

cc Gage Skidmore, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?sort=last_edit_desc&search=donald+trump+filetype%3Abitmap&title=Special%3ASearch&profile=advanced&fulltext=1&advancedSearch-current=%7B%22fields%22%3A%7B%22filetype%22%3A%22bitmap%22%7D%7D&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Donald_Trump_(54235541158).jpg

Examining the historical background and geopolitics of the Panama Canal – a vital trade link that has recently made headlines with President Trump’s vow to not let the canal fall into the ‘wrong hands.’

Ethiopia-Somalia Agreement: Turkey’s Rising Influence in the Horn of Africa

The new terminal of Aden Abdulle International Airport built by Turksih company in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 25. 2015 AMISOM Photo / Ilyas Ahmed; AMISOM public information, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?sort=last_edit_desc&search=erdogan+somalia+filetype%3Abitmap&title=Special:Search&profile=advanced&fulltext=1&advancedSearch-current=%7B%22fields%22%3A%7B%22filetype%22%3A%22bitmap%22%7D%7D&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:2015_01_25_Turkish_President_Visit_to_Somalia-3_(16176886347).jpg

Brokered by Turkey, the recent Ethiopia-Somalia agreement is a cornerstone in de-escalating a nearly decade-long rivalry.

The Fall of Assad: Syria’s Turning Point and the Path Ahead

cc Flickr Maureen, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/amerune/174613514/in/photolist-gqWvQ-kTLKk-nvDUzj-bxwD8K-2n8JdD8-2heti6h-y7rBzq-cL1zPG-xsbuqg-2n9V2jz-xs3u89-bT3ofB-y7ye3B-y7sZHu-xs3xVu-2naeSa5-y7rWTq-y7ycGv-xsbiB2-y7ruSY-xsbp4V-5iAiz-y7xTgT-b7Ea5R-xs3nwJ-xs3inS-xsbgJV-yp4ReB-y7sYSG-xsbjcv-y7y6DD-ymKj37-7hiNXy-xsbo3X-y7rSHS-xsb8h4-yp4TkR-ypMj4H-ymKjsW-ypMhWc-ymKc3A-ypMaCK-yp4TQi-y7sJcu-yxSdnj-26ejpnK-Q9CkAp-yp4WzB-ypMhDZ-y7sZVJ

The fall of the Assad regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, bringing power struggles, regional realignments, and the immense challenge of rebuilding a deeply fractured nation.

Second Fall of Aleppo Marks New Phase in Syrian Civil War

cc LOUAI BARAKAT , modified, Aleppo Citadel in 2016. https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=500&offset=0&profile=default&search=aleppo+war&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Aleppo_in_the_war_2016.jpg

The Syrian civil war has suddenly become unfrozen, and the Assad regime is not ready to resume the fight.

India-China Border Agreement: A Tactical Step, No Strategic Reset

cc intrepid_wanderer, modified, 2008, https://www.flickr.com/photos/seethis/2453932794

While the recent India-China border agreement certainly represents a diplomatic success, it does not fully address deeply rooted strategic mistrust and competition between the two powers.

Sinwar’s Death and the Escalating Gaza Conflict

Unknown author, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yahya_Sinwar_greeting_Iranian_Supreme_Leader_Ali_Khamenei.jpg

While Israel celebrated Yahya Sinwar’s death as a form of justice, the removal of the Hamas leader did little to resolve the wider dynamics fueling the Gaza conflict.

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