Paulo Aguiar

Paulo Aguiar earned a master's degree in International Relations from NOVA University Lisbon, specializing in Realism, Classical Geopolitics, and Strategy. As an aspiring professional in geopolitical risk analysis and strategic foresight, Paulo regularly shares his insights on Geopolitical Monitor and his own Substack, which is available at: https://horizongeopolitics.substack.com/

Breaking Down a Hypothetical US-Ukraine Critical Minerals Agreement

cc President Of Ukraine, modified, In Paris, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy participated in a trilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Donald Trump for his unwavering resolve and expressed particular gratitude to Emmanuel Macron for organizing the meeting. The discussion focused on our people and ways to support them, the overall situation, and the establishment of a just peace. “We all want peace. But it is crucial for us, and this is our position, that the peace is just for all of us, and that Russia, Putin, or any other aggressor has no possibility of ever returning. And this is the most important thing — just peace and security guarantees, strong security guarantees for Ukraine,” the President concluded. The leaders committed to continued cooperation and communication. / https://flickr.com/photos/president_of_ukraine/54193186749/in/photolist-2qNjUSz-XZdjaq-2qpe7sJ-2qyQT6Q-2hkWkKy-2hkWkLf-2hkX4De-2hkWkSs-SVrWue-Rc7vXZ-2n26QgL-2qNjUNG-2qNkXX1-2qySfmM-2qNefNm-2qNXmfu-2qNk1oi-2qNkYbn-2n7LfPB-2jyzapP-2n3svPe-2qNkXX6-2nkMdYt-2qNefQA-2qNiPHk-2qNk1ev-2qNiPWM-2qt2Q98-2qNk1mj-2qNkY5F-2qNk1e5-2qNefZt-2qNkYav-2pWcrh3-2qNefUP-2qNjUVk-2qNefYw-2qNiPSJ-2qNiPPc-2qNefMu-2qNk1iy-2qNefYr-2qNxyse-2qNkY3m-2qrEMrL-2qrAi9c-2qNiPTR-2qNk1pa-2qNiPV4-2qNMmnC

The US-Ukraine critical minerals agreement is being presented as a power move to recoup Washington’s war costs. But the economic outlook of the pact remains dubious.

Congo on Edge: M23 Rebels Advance as Regional Tensions Soar

M23 fighters loyal to Bosco Ntaganda move along the road towards Goma as Peacekeepers observed gathering of armed people North of the city, the 1st of March 2013. cc MONUSCO Photos /Sylvain Liechti / modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/monusco/8531078326

A highly fluid crisis is playing out in Central Africa as the M23 rebels expand their territorial footprint in eastern DRC.

Germany’s Power Shift: What CDU/CSU Victory Means

cc European Peoples Party, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/eppofficial/52112671291/in/photolist-2qySVfL-2qG89s5-2efeaZ2-29Tug3W-2aSvzx8-2qEWovY-2e8CH1F-QBvany-2bgytkZ-2i7vc5c-2qyVaVs-2qyNiLD-kiJrkz-2qyNiJ4-2cEPpRL-2j275GM-2qySV9y-2qyVaYP-29Tv3VN-2qySV8X-2qyUhB4-2np3iFM-2np24AB-2np3DG3-2np2izL-2np22qr-2np1Vib-kdA72n-2np3DJc-jD1n8b-2n7LtBQ-kh4ScT-jCZjm9-2noVMyh-jCX6Wz-jCZs1Q-2n7Rvmc-2kVYwKn-2np3nWL-2noVS8H-2np6qAd-2np41pe-2np6TaW-2noY2zj-B3TmeX-2pWcrh3-2q7xN2A

The incoming CDU-led government inherits a daunting to-do list: revive economic growth, achieve greater European strategic autonomy, and unite an increasingly fractured Germany society.

Houthis Emerge from Red Sea Crisis Unscathed

231019-N-GF955-1104 RED SEA (Oct. 19, 2023) The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) defeats a combination of Houthi missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea, Oct. 19. Carney is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to help ensure maritime security and stability in the Middle East region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau) ; modified, US Navy, cc, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USS_Carney_engages_Houthi_missiles_2.jpg

US-led reprisals against the Houthis amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis have not diminished the group’s military capacity and regional weight. If anything, they have emerged stronger than before.

The Battle for Khartoum: Geopolitics of the Sudan Civil War

Khartoum from the sky. Control over the city's bridges has dictated the ebb and flow of the Sudan civil war. / cc Esam Idris , modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sudan_from_sky.jpg

The Sudanese Armed Forces have recently seized the initiative in the battle for Khartoum, but an end to one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts remains as elusive as ever.

The Global AI Race: The Geopolitics of DeepSeek

DeepSeek界面截图 copy

The advent of DeepSeek has upended the global AI hierarchy, with the potential consequence of further digital fragmentation between East and West.

Trump Tariffs Stir Fears of US-EU Trade War

cc hans m., modified, Port of Rotterdam, https://flickr.com/photos/109200699@N03/54221069990/in/photolist-2qBka5j-2epdHWu-2fU5iSj-2iSUKse-2qjwfP4-2ifrABN-2qjwfQg-2iSQm9p-2jYfbxs-2jdDpWE-2qBka4x-2qjwTxR-2qkuuor-2qeNTsj-2iA9nr3-2iRhmj3-2imu8nN-2ixx4ds-2iFYUhq-2jwzgwR-2qoGBUv-2fN3JQ4-2qqouGg-2imxK5h-2qfdyAy-2qFUDK8-2fELPsL-2qpPPSR-2qksQrZ-2jbKqbU-2qpPPSF-2jVYy43-2iDKJ6Z-2jbKquK-2qDoPLg-2qCi6yf-2qkuurh-2iSUKkW-2iC5VLj-2qeJjNA-2qo8HEW-2qJYnqY-2ie46HS-2qjwfPK-2iDPWkj-2juVU2f-2iCUQG1-2jkakKo-2iAujSh-2qCjm2E

The economic view from Europe as a new round of Trump tariffs looms. What are the stakes for different sectors and states in a new US-EU trade war?

Trump Tariffs to Remake North American Trade Relations

cc U.S. Customs and Border Protection, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:San_Ysidro_Border_Traffic_%288652039817%29.jpg

If implemented, the Trump tariffs will have a profound impact on economies, politics, and foreign relations in North America and beyond.

Trump’s Greenland Play: New Realities in Arctic Geopolitics

cc US National Guard, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/thenationalguard/52559487300/in/photolist-2o5v7qU-25VYCJW-2iJ7Ffx-Hy4aDd-2mTKD6e-2gUtwwc-28zWwXY-28zWwPw-28J3koK-HVtnZ7-28DB9wj-HYvNcT-K1sqUa-25Y97M9-27CD5Bh-27CD4oL-28JaYi2-H3JUUM-2ixygcL-25UjHpE-Be4QKA-2htFNZM-25Y1p9U-LAf4aG-H3E2ub-2pnWC3P-KEvGen-HVtmBY-H3E1ah-2nbfKEa-2ibDYCm-HS91Lr-2qAAmQK-2g6hjTs-H3JWKR-HYvNLZ-28EFWvD-2nYwmUt-2ocyjzK-2hsb7g1-AmT2iV-AkwmUR-2c34dj1-EKRiat-2n7sJxT-KcNhtE-dQJmPf-2ockkKg-y8T1G9-KcNfFm, University of Alaska Army ROTC cadets board an Alaska Army National Guard UH-60L Black Hawk helicopter, assigned to the 1-207th Aviation Regiment, during an air assault training event at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Dec. 2, 2022. Following the tactical insertion, the Seawolf Detachment cadets maneuvered across snow-covered terrain, assaulted opposition forces, secured their objective, and concluded with an air exfiltration. The AKARNG’s General Support Aviation Battalion routinely trains with all branches of the military as well as civilian agencies to hone its operational interoperability and maintain readiness for a wide range of state and federal missions. (U.S. Air Force photo by Alejandro Peña)

Greenland represents an opportunity to secure resources, dominate emerging trade routes, and project power throughout the Arctic. Little wonder it has captured the strategic imagination of the Trump administration.

Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership: Geopolitical and Economic Implications

Russian-Iranian talks. Photo: Sergei Bobylev, / cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76125

The newly announced Russia-Iran strategic partnership codifies and expands the longstanding trend of warming bilateral relations, but it’s not quite a game-changer in the security sphere.

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