Mikhail Fedorov

The Hormuz Stress Test: How Long Will Oil Stockpiles Hold Out?

Central Command Area of Responsibility (Jun. 29, 2003) -- Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq readies itself to receive oil at Mina-Al-Bkar Oil terminal (MABOT), an off shore Iraqi oil installation. The supertanker AbQaiq is the first commercial vessel to receive exported Iraqi oil as an off shore customer since 1991, outside of the United Nations' Oil-For-Food program. AbQaiq is scheduled to take on an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. Navy and coalition forces are helping to provide security, enforcing an exclusionary perimeter around the terminal. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Andrew M. Meyers. (RELEASED) / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_Navy_030629-N-4790M-006_Commercial_oil_tanker_AbQaiq_readies_itself_to_receive_oil_at_Mina-Al-Bkar_Oil_terminal_%28MABOT%29,_an_off_shore_Iraqi_oil_installation.jpg

Delving into the data on lost oil volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, strategic reserves around the world, and how the global economy will effect a slow yet painful transition in the event of an extended closure.

High-Frequency Poker: Upending Drone Warfare by Raising the Frequency Stakes

Drone frequency, Generated by Google Gemini AI on March 10, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Instead of competing in a race-to-the-bottom where adversaries enjoy an advantage in low-end mass manufacturing, the West could play to its strengths by forcing drone warfare to a higher frequency band. Here is a thought experiment on what that might look like.

Why Democratization Is a Death Sentence for the Russian Federation

Generated by Google Gemini AI on March 4, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

There is no middle ground for post-Putin Russia. It will either remain a feral, aggressive, isolated Empire, or it will fall apart with a deafening crash. A transitional, cozy European alternative for this territory simply does not exist.

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